Topline
Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin surged dramatically in papal betting odds after white smoke billowed from the Sistine Chapel on Thursday afternoon, with bettors banking on pope Francis’ Vatican secretary of state after the conclave ended sooner than some experts had expected. (Update: Two bettors made over $50,000 by picking Cardinal Robert F. Prevost—now Pope Leo XIV.)
Cardinals gathered at the Sistine Chapel Wednesday to elect a new pope. (Photo by Christopher … More Furlong/Getty Images)
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Key Facts
Parolin’s leads dramatically increased after the white smoke billowed Thursday—before the newly elected pope’s identity was revealed—with many bettors shifting predictions to the Italian cardinal.
Parolin holds large leads on Polymarket and Kalshi, online betting platforms legally authorized to accept bets in the U.S., with about 70% odds on both platforms to be elected pope.
Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle remains in second place on both platforms, though he is much further behind Parolin than he was early Thursday, when he was just a few percentage points behind.
-Parolin, considered more moderate than the liberal-leaning Francis, and Tagle, a liberal-leaning cardinal whose advocacy for the poor has drawn comparisons to Francis, have both been floated by papal experts as likely leading candidates.
Bettors on the next pope have wagered more than $25 million in total on Polymarket and $9 million on Kalshi.
Who Do Experts Think Will Be The Next Pope?
Vatican experts say there is no single frontrunner to become pope, though there are several cardinals seen as favorites. This papal election is especially difficult to predict, experts have said, because the conclave is the largest and most globally diverse ever, largely because Francis appointed more than 100 cardinals from countries underrepresented in the church, who are eligible to participate in the conclave. “It’s really a much more complicated chemistry this time, because also there’s a very complicated international situation which affects different cardinals, different local churches in different ways,” Villanova University theology professor Massimo Faggioli told NPR. Many of the names experts have singled out as frontrunners are among those leading the betting odds—including Parolin, Tagle, Zuppi and Pizzaballa.
When Will The New Pope Be Chosen?
The conclave began Wednesday at the Sistine Chapel—it’s unclear how long the conclave will take, though all recent conclaves have taken two to three days. One vote will be cast Wednesday, the first day of the conclave, and four votes will be cast in each succeeding day until one candidate garners the necessary two-thirds majority to win. Once votes are tallied, black smoke will be emitted from the Sistine Chapel if the necessary majority was not achieved, while white smoke indicates a pope has been chosen.
Key Background
Betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi became prominent during the 2024 presidential election. On Polymarket alone, more than $3.6 billion was bet on the outcome of the election, which largely had President Donald Trump in the lead, though former Vice President Kamala Harris occasionally passed Trump in the odds for brief periods early in her campaign. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, who noted Polymarket also correctly predicted Mark Carney would become Canada’s next prime minister, touted Polymarket as “the most accurate source of information on the internet” in a post on X.
Further Reading
Conclave Begins Today: What To Know About Secretive Election For Next Pope (Forbes)
