Par
Maxime Ponsot
Published on
5 never 2025 to 5h36
What to expect for the start of summer? Météo France has published its bulletin of major trends for the next three months (from early May to the end of July 2025). They indicate that the time of next quarter should be rather warmbut find it difficult to anticipate what concerns rain.
Trends, not forecasts
Each month, Météo France produces a bulletin of major climatic trends for the next three months. “These are not meteorological forecasts intended to provide information on the time expected in France such and such a day, but to identify probabilistic trends on the scale of Europe”, underlines the organization.
A time probably warmer than normal
In terms of temperatures On the one hand, we can expect values rather high Compared to what is expected at this time of year.
For the quarter, the hotter scenario than normal is most likely for France, and more generally from Europe to the Mediterranean basin.
“However, fresher occasional episodes are not excluded,” said the meteorological organization.
To put it simply, Météo France calculates the probabilities of a temperature scenario for metropolitan France: there is 50 % chance May this scenario be warmer That seasonal normal, 30 % like that it is in accordance with them, and 20 % that it is colder.
-Little visibility for precipitation
About the rain, on the other hand, difficult to say what we can expect in terms of precipitationcompared to usually for this period of the year.
Predictability is very limited for this quarter. No scenario is privileged on France or Europe.
In the same way, Météo France calculates the probabilities of a precipitation scenario for mainland France. And the establishment remains undecided: there is 33 % chance of having a drier scenario than seasonal normal, 33 % chance of having a compliant with them, and 33 % that it is more humid.
Handcraft conditions
Note that These elements are trendstherefore indicative and general: they do not exclude certain atmospheric phenomena, and for example Possible episodes of rain or cold.
The climatic trend only strives to determine if the coming season will be more hot, colder than normal season or simply near. An average trend in accordance with normal can be the result of a succession of cold and hot episodes.
As a reminder, global warming, widely due to human activities, causes temperatures more and more frequently above seasonal normal (period 1991-2020). On a global scale, the year 2024 was the first year beyond the 1.5 ° C heating bar compared to the pre-industrial period.
Follow all the news in your favorite cities and media by registering for my news.
