The Russian ruble has become the most efficient motto in the world since the start of the year. He even surpasses gold, traditionally considered as a refuge value. This is revealed by a report published Tuesday, April 15, 2025 by Bloomberg Economics.
Since January, the Russian currency has appreciated 38 % against the dollar on the over -the -counter market, thanks to a series of internal factors, including exceptionally high national interest rates. In parallel, the US dollar undergoes increasing pressures. They are linked to the intensification of trade wars initiated by the administration of President Donald Trump.
A economic context favorable to the Russian motto
“Unlike other currencies of emerging markets, the ruble does not undergo a massive capital flight,” explains Sofia Donets, chief economist at T-Investments. It attributes this resilience to the strict capital controls imposed by Moscow and the high cost of the interior credit, which contributes to supporting the currency.
Despite Western sanctions that are still in force since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Russian currency continues to strengthen. However, this vigor of the ruble could have a perverse effect by reducing the country’s export revenues, especially in the energy sector, on which the state budget is strongly depended.
Indeed, the Central Bank of Russia applies a rigorous monetary policy, now a 21 % key rate in order to control inflation. This policy limits imports and, therefore, demand for foreign currencies. In parallel, the authorities require exporters to convert part of their income into foreign currency on the local market, which mechanically supports the ruble.
A renewed interest in the ruble in the “Carry Trade”
The ruble also attracts international investors thanks to its high performance in the context of strategies of carry trade – which consist in borrowing in low -rate currencies to invest in those at high rate. This dynamic is reinforced by a perception of relative appeasement in tensions between Washington and Moscow.
Alexander Lutsko, research manager at Istar Capital in Dubai, observes that, despite the risk of sanctions, more and more investors seek to access the assets in rubles via the economic partners of Russia. He also notes that many Russian companies are trying to refinance their expensive ruble debt using loans leveraged in Chinese yuan, thus stimulating the conversion of foreign currency to rubles.
For its part, the US dollar has dropped at its lowest level in six months, weakened by uncertainty surrounding the pricing policy of the United States. Faced with these uncertainties, investors have turned to refuge values such as gold, which has increased by 23 % since the start of the year – a performance, however lower than that of the ruble.
An unexpected assessment of the ruble that defies forecasts
The current force of the ruble took the Russian government, which had founded its 2025 budget on an average exchange rate of 96.5 rubles for a dollar – a level 14 % lower than the current rate. This situation coincides with a marked drop in oil prices, exposing the country to a shortfall on its export revenues.
Despite this impressive performance, analysts remain cautious. A survey carried out in March by the Russian bank reveals that the majority of experts anticipate an average exchange rate of 98.5 rubles for a dollar by the end of the year.
In her latest report on monetary policy, she attributes the rise of the ruble to a renewed interest in Russian assets, in a context of relative geopolitical stabilization. Maintaining a high key rate also continues to play a key role in supporting the national currency.
According to some analysts, the current conditions favorable to the ruble should be maintained in the short term. “To date, nothing suggests a brutal fall of the ruble. Especially since the prospect of a drop in interest rates seems unlikely in the short term, “concludes Alexander Lutsko.
