Global actions have evolved in close forks on Tuesday and the dollar returned to part of its recent losses in the face of Asian currencies, investors are once again worrying about American customs duties and their impact on economic growth.
These concerns, associated with the promises of the main oil producers to increase their offer, also maintained crude prices at levels close to their lowest level in four years.
In Asia, attention turned to foreign currency after the Taiwanese dollar increase in the last sessions, which fueled speculation on a re-evaluation of regional currencies in order to obtain commercial concessions from the United States.
This rise suggests an important outcome and highlights one of the many savings in years of significant commercial surpluses have led exporters and insurers to accumulate large long positions on the dollar, which are today questioned and under pressure.
The tension moved Tuesday to Hong Kong, where the de facto central bank bought $ 7.8 billion to prevent the local currency from appreciating and breaking its anchoring in the greenback.
“The actual action takes place today on the Asian exchange markets,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in Singapore.
“If these currencies continue to appreciate strongly, this could raise fears of an” inverted Asian monetary crisis “, with potential repercussions on the bond market, in a context where it is feared that Asian institutions are re -evaluating their exposure not covered to the titles of the American Treasury. »»
In continental China, the Yuan appreciated to reach its highest level since March 20, at 7.23 for a dollar.
The Taiwanese dollar was exchanging Tuesday morning at 30 for an American dollar, not far from the highest level reached for almost three years, at 29.59, after jumping 8 % in two days.
In the stock markets, the MSCI index, which brings together the shares of the Asia-Pacific region outside Japan, fell 0.2 % while Japan was closed due to public holidays. Taiwanese shares fell 0.3 %.
The Chinese markets resumed after a public holiday, the index of the star values opening slightly. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index fell 0.2 %.
Investors were interested in the possibility of appeasement of trade tensions between the United States and China after Beijing said last week that it evaluated a Washington proposal aimed at keeping discussions on customs duties.
However, in the absence of details, uncertainty reigns and investors are trying to give meaning to the information from the White House.
President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Washington met many countries, including China, and that his main priority with China was to win a fair agreement.
Trump also imposed 100 % customs duties on Monday on the films produced outside the United States, without however specifying how these taxes would be implemented.
According to Mr. Chanana, from Saxo, the big titles on customs duties influence market orientation. “This means that the risk/tactical yield ratio could still lean up, thanks to concrete data that is maintained and a feeling supported by the hope of trade agreements. »»
Data published Monday showed that growth in the service sector in the United States has accelerated in April, while the price index paid by companies for materials and services has reached its highest level in more than two years, reporting a rise in inflationary pressures due to customs duties.
The attention is now turning to the monetary policy decision of the American federal reserve on Wednesday, where the Central Bank should maintain its unchanged rates, but where attention will focus on the way in which political decision -makers plan to navigate in a context marked by customs duties.
“The markets want confirmation that the FED intends to reduce its rates in the event of a price shock caused by customs duties, as is currently being taken into account in prices,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
Traders expect a relaxation of 75 base points this year, with a first measure likely to be taken in July, according to LSEG data.
As for raw materials, oil stabilized on Tuesday after reaching its lowest level in four years during the previous session, under the effect of OPEC+ decision to speed up the increase in its production.
Gold courses have reached their highest level in one week thanks to the demand for refuge assets.
