Will electricity bills double in ten years? This is what Marine Le Pen said in an interview with the magazine The hemicycleat the beginning of April, when she was questioned about the multi -year energy programming (PPE), the French energy roadmap for the next ten years. A text that details the evolution of nuclear part and that of renewable energies. “Let a multi -year program pass which will increase consumers’ bills by 100%, and 30% energy bills for companies, it is not about it”said the president of the RN deputies, evoking the risk of government censorship.
While the Prime Minister, François Bayrou, made a gesture on Monday, in particular, of the national rally by postponing “From here to the end of the summer” The Decree on PPE, Franceinfo looks at the reliability of this forecast advance by the former far -right candidate for the presidential election.
Where does this figure come from? The calculation does not emanate from the RN. Marine Le Pen borrows her from André Merlin, who was director of RTE, the manager of the electricity transport network, between 2000 and 2007. According to him, if France was to respect the PPE, which must put the country on the path of carbon neutrality in 2050, invoices would flare. “The price of electricity in 2035 for individuals, it will double”he said on April 1 at the Luxembourg Palace, reports Public Senate. He repeated it with the Point, In an article published on April 3: “By 2035, the price will double for individuals, and it will climb 30% for manufacturers.”
According to the former leader of RTE, the note will increase due to the high purchase prices of the renewables guaranteed by the State and by the rate of use of the public electricity network (Turpe), which is fixed by the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE). The first reason concerns a mechanism in which the State guarantees a minimal price for buying electricity from renewable energy producers. The second key to the Turpe, which is used to cover the development, maintenance and operating costs borne by the managers of the transport network (RTE) and distribution (ENEDIS).
Solicited by franceinfo, RTE judge “Complex to define the price of electricity to a ten -year deadline”. Indeed, this price depends on several elements, including the market (meeting supply and demand), electricity production costs, costs related to the exploitation of distribution and transport networks, and finally taxes. So many factors that can largely vary by 2035.
Venture to plan the price of electricity in ten years amounts to reading in a “crystal ball”Cingle to Franceinfo Mattias Vandenbulcke, deputy general delegate for the renewable France strategy, the association spokesperson for electrical renewable energies in France. “It is an exercise at best hazardous, at worst dishonest”he judges, adding that it only has“One goal: polarizing the debate”. This paid for the extreme right, according to him, since François Bayrou fell by announcing the postponement at the end of the summer of the decree on the PPE.
-The energy regulation commission has carried out work here and there evoking the evolution of the prices of electricity in the long term, but it shows itself “Extremely careful”insists Mattias Vandenbulcke. According to The pointthe CRE has not yet conducted a prospective study on the evolution of the price for the use of the public electricity network. The body did not respond to the requests of Franceinfo.
In detail, everything is not completely vague. “We know there will be [dans les factures] A part linked to the electrical network that will increase, but how exactly by 2035? We don’t really know “summarizes with Franceinfo Nicolas Goldberg, energy expert at Colombus Consulting. “However, we cannot say that this will double the invoices”he underlines. Moreover, “This increase is not bound only to the energy transition. It largely concerns Adaptation to global warming and the renewal of electrical networks. ” It is necessary to review “Installations that are sometimes almost 90”supports Mattias Vandenbulcke. Clearly, investments are necessary to upgrade them and prepare them for the future, but these expenses will not cause a multiplication by two of the note. Currently, around one third of an electricity bill is affecting networks, underlines RTE with Franceinfo.
Ultimately, “It is plausible that electricity prices can increase by 2035”adds Mattias Vandenbulcke, without being able to provide more precision. The fiscal choices will depend on the political arbitrations of the moment and all this uncertainty is multiplied if geopolitical upheavals are integrated into the equation. “If Kazakhstan and Nigeria suddenly change a diet, what would be the consequences for the price of uranium?”wonders Mattias Vandenbulcke. It was difficult to predict the war in Ukraine and the flight prices.
Seeing a little further, a senatorial report of July 2024 on “Electricity at the horizons 2035 and 2050” esteem that “The most likely is an alternation of more or less acute crises and low market periods, putting in difficulty alternately consumers and the producer EDF, and making any rational investment decision very difficult”. It is therefore difficult to carry out robust projections in such an unstable international context.
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