L’Ukraine refused a three -day truce That Putin hoped from May 8 to 10, for the celebrations of Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, 80 years ago. Moscow must fear attacks That day? Does Ukraine have the means (and the desire) to attack the Russian capital?
So, I would say that she certainly has the means and perhaps the desire. But does she have an interest? I don’t think so, for several reasons. First of all, leading a large-scale attack on the Red Square that day is to show that we want to continue to wage war. This would be contradictory with Zelensky’s desire to want a truce of at least thirty days. Then, the event will attract external guests such as Chinese President Xi Jinping. Even if these leaders take their responsibility by going to this ceremony, it is not in the interest of Ukraine to risk attacking the international community. Finally, it should not be forgotten that these commemorations are a Soviet affair and therefore affect the Ukrainians, who also sacrificed themselves at the time to fight Nazism, with millions of deaths. With this additional element, I can hardly see Ukraine attacking the parade in Moscow.
So everything will take place in peace?
What is possible, however, is that Ukrainians strike somewhere else, to mark the occasion and show that they have the capacity. For example by exploding a car or causing an incident not far from Moscow. It is a way of showing that Russia is at war and that this war continues.
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Zelensky considered that the Russians were capable of themselves provoking fires and explosions and then accusing Ukraine. Do you believe it?
With the former KGB masters, everything is possible. But I don’t think Putin has an interest in making a false incident near the parade. I remind you that he had 280 solar defense systems repatriate to create a security bubble around the Red Square. It would be totally contradictory to make a false attack at that time. It would mean that all the precautions taken have been in vain. It doesn’t stand up.
About twenty heads of state will participate in the parade on the Red Square. We note in particular the presence of the Brazilian president Lula and especially that of the Chinese president Xi Jinping. How are these guests of great importance for Vladimir Putin?
The goal sought by Putin is to show that Russia is not isolated, contrary to what Westerners would like to claim, and that not everyone considers it as an enemy.
Do you believe in the possible participation, at the last minute, participation of US President Donald Trump?
No, I don’t believe it at all. Because it is not decided at the last minute on the one hand. On the other hand, Trump is not very happy with regard to the behavior of Vladimir Putin who did not accept his peace proposals, which were however very complacent with regard to Russia. I think that for all these reasons, the American president will not go to the celebrations in Moscow. But I could be wrong.
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Will this feast of Liberation have a particular flavor for Russia this year, compared to previous editions? What will Vladimir Putin want to highlight, in your opinion?
80 years is a anniversary date. I think Putin will want to show that there is a parallel between this great patriotic war against the German Nazis and this “special operation” – as he defined it at the start – against the Ukrainian Nazis. Since the start of the conflict, the Russian president has made this assimilation, which is naturally false. I remind you that he needs to convince his compatriots permanently, saying that it is really to defend Russia and that it is important. We are now talking about tens of thousands of deaths on the Russian side, not to mention the wounded. We must therefore manage to justify all of this, with a great cause. What could be better than the recall of the patriotic war?
Rumors evoke that Russia lacks modern tanks and missiles to put forward to make an impression during the parade. Part of the material presented would be borrowed from allies like Kazakhstan. Are these statements founded?
What is certain is that the reserves of tanks, especially modern, are very low currently on the territory because these means have been engaged on the battlefield. Putin then has two solutions to ensure its parade. Either we bring back means of the front. A track which would also be quite consistent with the three -day truce requested by the Russians. Because the balance of power could change by reducing the armed presence on the ground. Or indeed, the master of the Kremlin may have borrowed equipment from countries which are somewhat dependent on him. It is possible but I have no solid information or information on this.
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Concerning the conflict As such, negotiations seem to skate. What about?
The peace deal proposed by Trump did not work because the Russians rejected it. What is interesting to see is that the American president is not entirely capitulating in history, since since then he has done business with the Ukrainians, by signing an agreement on minerals. What I have noted and which marks me in this declaration of agreement between the two countries is a strategic alignment, with common work on the security, prosperity and the reconstruction of Ukraine. In other words, there may be a presence of Americans on Ukrainian soil, and Putin will not see it with a good eye in his attempt to neutralize and completely russify Ukraine. Imagine the disorder if the Russian president sends bombs while American civilians are working in the mines …
Could Russia therefore backwards and return to a peace deal to its advantage?
This will depend a bit on the general climate in Russia. I know that the economic situation is not flourishing, which can not be bought in Russia because the borrowing rates are above 21 %. A certain weariness could also manifest itself more and more in the Russian citizen. Will all this persuade Putin that we have to end this war? Me, I am not convinced of it because the chief of the Kremlin needs this war to prevent there to be disputes inside the country. The best way for a dictator to avoid being challenged inside is to block an external threat …
