A glance at the electoral results map reveals a phenomenon that may seem surprising. In Ontario, for example, constituencies that used to send neo-democratic candidates sitting in Ottawa have rather chosen a conservative candidate this time. A movement marked to the right which is explained … in many ways.
Posted at 7:00 a.m.
To understand how the conservatives gain ground in the United States, Europe and, also, in Canada, Matt Farrell offers to rob a magnifying glass in a particular region: the Ontarian Federal district of London-Fanshawe, southwest of Toronto.
The teacher in political science of the Fanshawe college in London, lives and works in this constituency which brings together the south of the city of London. “The city, as a whole, is a real mixture,” says Matt Farrell. The public health and education sectors work a lot of people. “There are also many traditional manufacturing industries”, including an old CN sorting station. Three urban districts and two rurals represent the agglomeration of half a million people in the House of Commons. “The district of London – Fanshawe is traditionally a workers’ and manufacturing district,” says the teacher. Median income, according to Statistics Canada, is lower than in the rest of Canada and Ontario. A little less than a third of voters have a university degree.
For almost 20 years, the constituency was represented in the federally by the new Democratic Party (NPD)-first by Irene Mathyssen from 2006, then by his daughter, Lindsay, from 2019. In the last provincial elections, at the end of February, while the conservatives of Doug Ford were sweeping the province, the neo-democratic deputy Teresa Armstrong In a row, with 14 points ahead of his progressive-conservative opponent.
But despite this solid presence, the neo-democrats had felt a front wind in recent weeks. “I saw that at the NPD, we were full of hope, but nervous. In my neighborhood, conservative activists have passed twice to score, “said the teacher.
In other years, the conservative campaign was not as aggressive.
Matt Farrell, teacher in political science at Fanshawe college
And finally, at the end of the federal electoral campaign, London – Fanshawe changed color: with 10,000 more votes than in 2021, the conservative candidate Kurt Holman won his seat. On the electoral map of the five constituencies of London, three are now painted in blue.
What happened so that the constituency goes directly from orange to blue? From a left party to a right -wing party?
First, a division of the vote between the NDP and the Liberal Party. Neo-democratic and liberal candidates, also popular, each have raised around 30 % of the votes. This allowed the conservative candidate, with 41 % of the vote, to slip in mind. In 2021, with a lower liberal party, the neo-democratic deputy had won victory with 43 % of the votes.
Should we conclude that voters have swapped their support for the NPD against the Conservatives? Not necessarily. “In fact, there was a fairly significant increase in the participation rate compared to the previous election,” says Matt Farrell. About 7000 new voters have been added since 2021, “and they have spoken out quite decisively in favor of the conservatives”.
Traditional voters are characterized in particular by their level of education: the probability of exercising your right to vote is stronger in people who have a high level of education. Non -traditional voters in Canada and in several other countries are now more conservative, Matt Farrell recalls.
And it is precisely this non -traditional electorate that the Conservatives managed to go and seek in Ontario. Those who did not vote, as well as those to whom they did not address themselves directly before, such as unionized workers in the manufacturing private sector.
Already, during the provincial election tinged by the taxation of American customs duties, Doug Ford had succeeded in obtaining the support of several major unions in the private sector who had never supported a preservative before.
Photo Frank Gunn, Canadian Press Archives
The leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, during a campaign event in Toronto
“Union leaders are very transactional with political parties,” says Steven Tofts, professor of work geography at York University. “And Doug Ford was very cunning,” he adds, promising funds for the training of workforce and infrastructure investments.
The federal conservatives have not always had a proactive strategy towards unions, notes Mr. Tufts. “” [L’ancien chef] Erin O’Toole wanted to do it, but some in his party did not feel comfortable with this rapprochement, “he continues. At the time, Steven Tufts observed that with this strategy, “Erin O’Toole ate the Lunch of the NPD” …
Pierre Poilievre, on the other hand, continued to “pigerate in the lunch” of neo-democrats and continued this transactional approach with the unions, by promising “megaprojets that will give work to their members,” said Mr. Tofts.
Hairyvre and Ford used the same recipe. They like to get a picture of themselves with men who wear construction helmets …
Steven Tufts, professor of geography at work at York University
So, “for two years, they broadcast a very effective message” with workers, said Steven Tofts, hammering how much Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “was hard in their place”.
“Hairy was able to speak to them, and that overshadowed the fact that in his positions [à la Chambre des communes]he was very anti -maintenance. »»
And in the end, the conservatives may have lost national level, but they have progressed in center left districts like London-Fanshawe. If the NPD gets up fairly quickly in London – Fanshawe, observes Matt Farrell, he risks taking votes … in the Liberal Party. “Instead of the Conservatives, with 40 % of the votes in our constituency, I would feel quite confident for the next elections. »»What do you think? Take part in the dialogue
