Russia organizes its traditional military parade on May 9 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. A showcase for its equipment, while the defense industry is strongly requested due to the war in Ukraine and under the scope of international sanctions.
It is a parade that is intended to be power. Alongside the ancient T-34 tanks dating from the Second World War, Russia also scrolled this Friday, May 9, 2S44 Hyacinth-K and 2S43 Malva, Orlan-10 and -30 drones, as well as intercontinental missiles. Vladimir Putin wants to give the image of a solid army here while three years after the start of the war in Ukraine and therefore international sanctions, many questions arise on the state of the defense sector in Russia.
Data from the International Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicate that Russia would have spent $ 149 million in 2024 to equip itself with military equipment, stressing that “increasing opacity” since 2022 makes it difficult to develop defense expenses.
According to Isabelle Facon, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research and Russia Specialist, it is indeed today “difficult to assess the real capacities of the Russian arms industry”, she said in a study published in 2024.
A weakened industry
The researcher explains that there was a “before” and a “after” 2022 for the Russian arms industry. The Russian defense industrial complex first “surprised by a resilience force and a capacity of rebound”, while it faced several issues: the difficulty of producing materials not based on technologies “resulting from the Soviet heritage”, dependence on imports (machine tools, semi-crimpturers, electronics) and general financial health.
If Vladimir Putin has encouraged increased mobilization since September 2024 to compensate for losses on Ukrainian territory, the military industry remains in a contrasting situation: the increase in the production rate remains “subject to guarantee”.
To get around international sanctions, Russia had to turn to “rebounds” countries to obtain Western materials and components, it is said at the Ministry of the Armed Forces.
“However, the bypass schemes borrowed are complex and expensive and the goods acquired from other countries, often of lower quality,” said the Ministry of the Armed Forces in BFM Business.
Another solution to support the war effort: the use of allied countries – also under international sanctions. Russia thus benefits from the support of Iran and North Korea. These two countries have provided ammunition, shells, artillery and even missiles, according to the great continent. They would even have made a buyout of spare parts, however already delivered.
Duration
According to estimates by the Ministry of the Armed Forces, thanks to these strategic changes and “to the strong mobilization of its economy at the service of the war effort”, Russia produces “more than all the European countries together” when we speak of most of the categories of “materials and ammunition”. But the ministry tempers this power, indicating that “the relative economic and industrial power of Russia remains average”.
Investments in the armament industry being made “to the detriment of other sectors”, the industrial fabric is found unbalanced and weakened. The need to combine financing of the war and social peace effort leads in particular to inflation, adds the Ministry of the Armed Forces. In addition, the use of stocks of the Soviet era not being unlimited, the Russian armament industry is faced with the challenge of continuing production over time.
Having been summoned to prioritize the needs of the national army, the export activities of the military-industrial complex would have halved. Russia thus seeks to establish technological partnerships. It produces the Geran 2 under license, Russian copy produced under license of the Iranian drone Shahed and would benefit from the support of China in the equipment of the Garpia A1 attack drone, integrating Chinese engines.
The large continent indicates that the Russian military industry must also face a shortage In terms of workforce, workers as engineers, and must therefore intensify the workload – a measure which is not without consequence on the quality of production.
