Yellow metal is again approaching historical heights
L’or (XAU/USD) the bond to 3 387 $reaching a two -week higher in a climate where investors seek to protect themselves from growing geopolitical instability. In only two sessions, the increase exceeds 4 %carried by an unprecedented convergence of diplomatic tensions, Asian monetary volatility and a German political scene in full implosion.
The prospect of a return to the 3 500 $absolute record level, becomes credible again.
Read also: German political chaos explodes gold: here are the details that the markets fear.
Israel, Trump, Asia: catalysts of withdrawal to the refuge values
In Gaza, Israel accelerates its preparations for a Extended terrestrial offensivewith the clear intention of imposing a total control of the enclave. In this climate of increasing military tension, demand for Refuge active As gold is experiencing an upsurge.
In the United States, pressure rises on Donald Trumpsummoned to materialize the repeated announcements of trade agreements. The Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said on Fox News that first agreement would be signed “with a top 10 economy”. The markets are still waiting for these promises to take shape.
On the exchange market, the tremors caused by the Brutal increase in the Taiwanese dollar (TWD) Faced with the greenback sparked renewed prudence. The hypothesis of a weakening of US dollarhitherto pillar of refuge values, is starting to grow.
Thunderbolt at the Bundestag: German uncertainty feeds the outbreak
The vote of the Bundestag, in principle purely formal, aimed at confirming the chancellor Friedrich Merzfailed to obtain the majority. A first in German parliamentary historyrevealing a loss of confidence within the coalition and triggering a political shock wave.
No date is fixed for a new session, and speculation is going well on possible early elections. This political uncertainty about the first European economic power mechanically reinforces the attractiveness of gold.
Asian currencies fuel bond concerns
The relative stability found this Tuesday after the eddies on the TWD was not enough to appease fears. In Singapore, Love canana (Saxo Bank) believes that the pressure remains concentrated on Asian currencies, evoking the Risk of an “inverted crisis” If these currencies continue their sudden appreciation.
Such a dynamic could trigger sales of American treasury bills by Asian institutions, weakening an already under tension market. A scenario that would mechanically benefit gold, as bond yields fall.
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Beijing extends its influence: gold in yuan soon in Hong Kong
La Shanghai Gold Exchange plans to extend its warehouses to Hong Kongin order to strengthen the presence of its products labeled in yuan Out of continental China. This strategic initiative could consolidate the position of China in the world market for precious metal, with increasingly assertive ambitions.
Fed rate: status quo in May, but the pressure rises for June
The CME FedWatch Tool barely attributes 2.4 % probability to a drop in rates at the May meeting, but 29,8 % For that of June. Operators scrutinize the slightest declaration of the members of the Federal reservewhile anticipating more marked movements if macroeconomic data deteriorate.
A drop in rates would further strengthen the bruise of gold.
According to our expert: Trump, Gaza, Taiwan: why investors rush on gold as in wartime.
Technical analysis: resistance crossed, CAP on $ 3,500?
The threshold of 3 368 $ was crossed this Tuesday, confirming a Robust buyer flow to gold. In case of prosecution, the Resistor R2 to $ 3,403 could be tested in stride.
The objective of 3 500 $ It remains for the moment theoretical, but could be reached if no concrete commercial agreement is signed by the White House in the coming days.
Support side, the Daily point pivot is located 3 303 $followed by the S1 to $ 3,268aligned with several low points observed at the end of April. In the event of a stronger correction, the technical level of 3 245 $ would serve as a defensive barrier.
