The political scientist, principal researcher of the Armenia APRI Benjamin Poghosyan thinks that the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue for at least a year, which means the maintenance of the current status for the South Caucasus. The political scientist made these words during the discussions; “Safety of the South Caucasus in the context of the dialogue between Russia and the United States”.
According to Mr. Poghosyan, since 2022, the position of Russia in the South Caucasus has tended to weaken, but that does not mean that Russia leaves the region. ; There is a Russian military base in Armenia, and the Russian border guards continue to serve on certain parts of the border. We expect that by the end of the year, the borders of Armenia are no longer kept by Russian border guards. With the gradual withdrawal of Russia from the region, Turkey will become the main external actor. If hostilities on the Russian-Ukrainian theater continue, Moscow’s position in the Southern Caucasus region will continue to weaken, “said the political analyst, adding that Turkey will become actor N1 in the region, while Russia will become actor N2.
However, the political analyst believes that if the war in Ukraine stops before the end of the year, Russia will start slowly but surely to restore its shaken positions. “For three years, the collective West has been trying to weaken Russia, but it has never succeeded, which ultimately testifies to the power of the Russian Federation. If the war in Ukraine stops, Moscow will regain its status as a number 1 actor in our region, “said the political scientist;
