The figures make you dizzy. The Once d’Or is worth more than $ 3,300, up 26 % since January 1 and 40 % over a year. The symbolic threshold of the $ 2,000, crossed for the first time in 2020, seems only a distant memory. Gold is one of the most efficient assets in recent months. But this is not necessarily good news for the economy of the planet.
“The increase has accelerated in March when Donald Trump spoke about the establishment of customs duties in the United States, explains Alexandre Baradez, responsible for market analysis at IG France. Prospects for trade war and its consequences on global growth worries investors.” The yellow metal has thus fully played its role of refuge value to which to turn in the event of a crisis. Geopolitical tensions, especially around Ukraine and the Middle East, also contribute to the outbreak of recent months.
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The yellow metal also benefits from other more structural support factors. The central banks of emerging markets have been involved since 2022 in a massive purchasing policy, which contributes to raising the courses. “By increasing their gold reserves, rather than investing in American treasury bills, central banks diversify their exchange risk. It is also a way of participating in the dedollarization of the world economy,” says Arnaud du Plessis, manager of the CPR Invest Gold Mines fund at CPRAM. The expert specifies that purchases of central banks have exceeded 1,000 tonnes per year for three years, more than double previous years. “The ounce should continue to evolve around 3,000 dollars in the coming months, with peaks according to the announcements of the American president or geopolitical tensions,” anticipates Alexandre Baradez.
Long -term detention
Gold holders can therefore continue to rejoice. “Physical gold is not a speculative instrument but a long -term investment: 80 % of our buyers transmit it to their heirs to their death,” said Laurent Schwartz, president of the National Comptoir de l’Or. But is it still time to buy? A possible withdrawal around 3,000 dollars would constitute an interesting point of entry, with a long -term horizon, with a view to protecting the heritage.
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Buying a 1 kilo strip is not, however, within the reach of all budgets since it is worth more than 90,000 euros. There are smaller ingots, 1 gram to 500 grams to split your investment. “It is better to focus on weights greater than 20 grams to limit the impact of manufacturing cost on the price,” recommends Laurent Schwartz. It is also necessary to preciously keep the invoice specifying the number of the Lingotin or the sealed sachet in which the parts are placed in order to be able to prove the date and the price of acquisition when resale, for tax reasons.
Etc and mining funds
Given its value, gold must be placed in a safe. A constraint pushing certain investors to prefer paper gold to physical gold. It is then a question of buying not parts and ingots but financial investments called exchange traded commodities (ETC). They are listed on the stock market and acquire, via a securities account open to a broker or in a bank, with management companies such as Amundi, Investco, Ishares or Xtrackers. These products are backed by physical gold: their promoters hold ingots for an amount equivalent to their assets under management and their course replies the evolutions of the yellow metal.
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Finally, it is possible to bet on gold by subscribing to a fund invested in mining values listed on the stock market. These products have soared more than 35 % since the start of the year and 46 % over a year after Morningstar, on April 17. The sector remains well oriented. “The mining values have undergone a sharp increase in their production costs since 2020 due to inflation, reports Arnaud du Plessis. The rise in gold prices allows them to reconstruct their operational margins, or even more.” Please note that gold funds are above all a stock market investment, of which they undergo volatility.
