For former Russian diplomat Alexandre Melnik, peace in Ukraine is an illusion as long as Putin holds the reins of the Kremlin. “As long as he is there, no credible ceasefire is possible,” he said in an interview at the heart where he evokes a Berned Trump, a Europe with absent subscribers and a frozen conflict with existential consequences for the West.
He had promised to stop war in Ukraine in 24 hours. A hundred days after his inauguration, US President Donald Trump is still in a standstill, or almost. Diplomatic advances skate in the face of a Vladimir Putin who plays on his positions. The dead end begins to irritate the Republican president, who wants his “peace”, his “trophy”, his “deal”, and at all costs.
And it is not the mini truce proposed by Putin for the celebrations of May 9, a holiday in Russia, (it is obviously purely in its interest in not seeing Ukrainian drones crash on Moscow during the festivities) which suggests a lasting cease-fire. It is even very cynical, since Zelensky himself proposed to extend the 30-day Easter breakproposal rejected by Russia.
So why Does Putin play the watch Faced with an American ceasefire plan so much to the advantage of Russia? Has Trump underestimated the complexity of the issues and the tenacity of his Russian counterpart?
Alexandre Melnikprofessor of geopolitics at ICN Business School, is a former Russian diplomat. It represents the USSR then Russia between 1981 and 1995, in Paris, Moscow, Geneva and New York, and left diplomacy shortly after the fall of the USSR. Converted into a political scientist specializing in international relations, the Franco-Russian, who knows the Soviet regime like his pocket, delivers an ultra-critical discourse to Vladimir Putin, who “leads Trump by boat”, but also Europe, “invisible”, which “forgot its own fundamentals.” Interview.
Alexandre Melnik, why does Vladimir Putin play this point in negotiations?
Putin does not want peace. He sparked a war he wants to finish. And go to the end. His goals have not changed: Annate Ukraine, Scalper Zelensky, and establish a government in the Boot of Russia. In the end, Putin does not see Ukraine as an independent country, he wants to attach it to the Russo-Soviet Empire.
Today, he is starting a dialogue with Trump only because he wants to get out of a certain isolation. By restoring links with the United States, he wants to restore an image of power to his country. Acquiring this status requires the resumption of contact with the first power of the world. Poutine So play the watch, pretends to have a sincere dialogue with the United States. In reality, he leads Trump by boat.
However, Putin is not really in a position of strength on the ground …
Quite. Putin rolls everyone in flour. On the front line, it is not in a position of strength. The Russians do not progress. During the pope’s funeral, and only in order to divert media attention, the Kremlin had announced that the Koursk region had been fully released. However, this is not the case. Russia achieves diversion maneuversand the fact that she cannot regain a tiny part of her territory – more than nine months – proves How failing his army is. It is even forced to call on North Korea; A shame for an army supposed to be the second strongest in the world.
“Putin’s objectives have not changed: destroying Ukraine, Scalper Zelensky, and establishing a government in the Boot of Russia.”
Contrary to what we sometimes hear, the situation on the ground is therefore not entirely favorable to the Russians. For example, they failed to take the key city of Pokrovsk. The situation is frozen. Ukraine is not able to resume its territories by military force, but, on the other hand, the Russians no longer advance at all. We are in a configuration of Pat, as during a chess game, where no winner can be appointed. Both parties can no longer act, they are stuck.
The degradation of the Russian army is also corollary to the poor state of the country’s economy. Inflation rises to 10%, credit rates are exploding, investments are at its lowest. Putin disconnected her own country from the global economy. Unlike China, for example, which remains interconnected.
“Of course, the American ceasefire plan completely ingests Putin’s narrative.”
-
Do you see, if not an outcome, a possible diplomatic advance in the short term?
On the diplomatic level, the situation is as frozen as on the front line. I don’t believe in the miracle solutionas if Trump had been touched by divine grace in the Saint-Pierre Basilica of Rome. The situation as we know it today will last. We are in a kind of dead end. The two peace plans offered by Trump and Putin are completely incompatible. And this while the American plan is a flower made to Russia. He completely ingests Putin’s narrative. Trump has also become his Siamese brother. Is it aware of this? This is another question.
Are the American conditions as presented in the ceasefire plan synonymous with capitulation for Ukraine?
Of course, they are synonymous with unparalleled surrender from Ukraine. The novelty is The question of Crimea, which returns on the front line. The peninsula is the Gordian knot of the conflict. The war had started in Crimea in 2014, and “must” also end. This territory cannot be sold by Ukrainians. However, Russia considers that its Russian recognition is a prerequisite for all negotiations. Which proves the incompatibility of plans.
“Crimea is the Gordian node of the conflict. This territory cannot be sold by Ukrainians. However, Russia considers that its Russian recognition is a prerequisite for all negotiations. ”
Europe again seems spectator of events. What can or should it do?
It has completely softened for years, bureaucratized, resting only on the American umbrella. She has become a kind of bisounours, parasitic and profit from the American force. Today, we find the seriousness of historywhich had been completely forgotten in Europe. The old continent must carry out a “resetting of consciences”. And this awakening must serve as a salutary shock. Is he realizing? I’m not sure. For most Europeans, the war in Ukraine is still quite distant.
In the short term, can Europe act more?
Yes, this is what is sorely lacking. Europe must take urgent measures and get out of this endless chatter. Establish a “no-fly zoneIn Ukraine is for example a concrete measure that should have been applied from the start. Just like Enter and use frozen Russian assets for funding And put an end to the “legally correct”. On the other side, we face a man who does not respect any law, and who rushes. Europe is still hiding behind the procedures. However, with exceptional situation, exceptional measures.
The EU never seems to have been respected as a power that counts in negotiations …
The European Union has forgotten its own fundamentals. Ukraine is Europe. However, the country of Zelensky dies today, and Fights for the values that had founded European civilization. These same values can save the global world where democracy, law and human dignity, intrinsic in the West, are challenged everywhere on the planet.
“The war in Ukraine is not just a story of sharing territories. It is also an existential war for the maintenance of European values of democracy and human dignity. ”
Ukraine is therefore not just a story of sharing territories, but an existential war. If Europe does not support it by all means, it will come out of the geopolitical game and history. This Europe that we know will disappear from the card, quite simply. At best, it will become a kind of Disneyland for other great powers.
In this balance of power, where is Ursula von der Leyen?
She is nonexistent, invisible. Trump does not even want to speak to her, when she should be the standard bearer of Europeans. Especially since the formal president of Europe, on paper, is a person whose few people know the name (Editor’s note: the chairman of the council, António Costa, successor to Charles Michel). It just means that there is none leadership European. Opposite, the Americans are extremely basic. They want dealerbut like it to repeat, already since the time of Richard Nixon: “Give us the telephone number of Europe”. Trump is much more primitive than his predecessors, but This visibility problem has not changed.
“As long as Putin is in power, no cease-fire worthy of the name will be signed.”
Where are the security guarantee hopes? The idea seemed almost acquired, with the presence of European troops on European territory. She suddenly subsided …
First you need a ceasefire, and only afterwards, we can talk about guarantees. In the discussions, the British seem less alternative than the French with the sending of troops to Ukrainian territory. All this remains hypothetical. Anyway, As long as the Putin regime is in power, the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine will never be accepted. Worse: war will continue and go crescendo. It may seem radical, but the reality is that as long as Putin is in power, no cease-fire worthy of the name will be signed. There can obviously be DIY. But they will be worse than the Minsk 1 and 2 agreements. They will hover like a security bomb on security in Europe.
So, yes, this blur can and will last. We engage in a very long term. You have to remember that This war was triggered by Putin to save his skin, his regime. War is part of its DNA. As long as Putin is there, this war will continue. It is a cruel, but clinical reality.
