Here is how far credit rates could fall in 2025, according to specialists

The French real estate market is in full transformation at the start of 2025. After having experienced historically high mortgage rates in 2022 and 2023, the trend is now turning to a promising drop. This dynamic arouses the interest of potential buyers and raises questions about the future of the market and the prospects for borrowers.

Evolution of mortgage rates in 2025

For several months, observers of the real estate market have noted a gradual decrease in credit rates. After the increase period of 2022 and 2023, where rates were around 4%, a new drop -down area seems to open. According to theCredit Observatory / CSAthe average mortgage rate increased to 3.24% at the start of 2025.

This drop in rates is partly due to the more flexible monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). With controlled inflation, the ECB began to soften its position. François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Banque de France, even plans a “neutral rate” of around 2% by the summer of 2025, which would mark the end of the restrictive policy.

Factors influencing the drop in rates

The reduction in mortgage rates is influenced by several economic and financial factors. Here are the main ones:

• The drop in inflation, facilitating a less restrictive monetary policy.
• The key rates of the ECB, which serve as reference for commercial banks, are decreasing.

However, the bond market makes the table a little. The rate of assimilable treasury bonds (OAT) to 10 years increased, reaching 3.2% in December 2024. This increase could limit the capacity of banks to further reduce their loan rates. In addition, recent political instabilities, such as the change of government, also had repercussions on the financial markets and, therefore, on mortgage conditions.

Perspectives for borrowers in 2025 and beyond

Despite the current tendency to lower mortgage rates, experts are cautious for medium -term development. Michel Mouillart, renowned economist, anticipates that this decline could continue until the summer of 2025, with rates potentially around 2.85%. Subsequently, it provides for stabilization of these rates for the years 2026 and 2027.

This could offer a golden opportunity for future buyers. The more favorable financing conditions could allow many households to carry out their real estate acquisition projects, especially since prices experience adjustments in various French regions.

However, it is crucial for future borrowers to remain attentive and take advantage of the current conditions. The future stabilization of rates suggests that a significant drop after 2025 is unlikely. Thus, it might be wise not to take too long to take advantage of the best financing offers available currently.

In conclusion, the French real estate market in 2025 has interesting opportunities for borrowers. With declining credit rates and potentially advantageous financing conditions, this is perhaps the ideal time to materialize a real estate project.