The sky is covered on the prospects of the Vaud economy, its gross domestic product (GDP) and its growth, due to uncertainties linked to the trade war of customs prices. If the rate of growth promises to be low, no recession, on the other hand, seems to be on the horizon to date.
Growth should again register this year below the average of the last fifteen years, probably between 1.2% and 1.7% for 2025, the partners of Vaud conjuncture, the Vaud Cantonal Bank (BCV), the Vaud Trade and Industry Chamber (CVCI) and the State of Vaud and innovation (SPEI) Vaud statistics.
The acceleration envisaged around 1.8% last year during the last annual forecasts will therefore certainly not take place. The clouds of uncertainty should not dissipate for 2026, with a range still quite cautious and wide at the same time, between 0.8% and 1.9% for the canton of Vaud.
“Very powerful opposites”
“It has been two years that the rate of growth is low, that it skates and lacks momentum,” commented Jean-Pascal Baechler, economic advisor to the BCV. “We are facing the opposite winds which are very powerful. In our canton, we know how to face them, but this time it will be a little harder to face them” these next two years, he illustrated.
In these perspectives “darken” by an “increasingly high” uncertainty “following the World Trade War and American ads on customs duties, a recession is not on the agenda, according to the partners of Vaud conjuncture. The Vaudois economy can also count on the support of a solid domestic demand, they explained.
And hard to say if the famous robustness of the economy of the canton is likely to reach its limits with this new crisis. The diversity and heterogeneity of companies on Vaudois soil, whose economic fabric has adapted, energized and constantly regenerated since the crisis of the 90s and those of the 2000s, still remain an asset.
“The fundamentals are there. Public finances are structurally good, they are healthy, just like the economic bases of the canton,” said Patrick Zurn, economic manager at the Vaud House of Commerce and Industry. The unemployment rate remains low (4.5%) and inflation is low, he also stressed.
Pessimism in industry
Due to the degree of uncertainty, branch forecasts are to be considered with caution, according to specialists. However, certain trends are emerging, which could continue to be verified this year. Business march in the industry should be the most affected.
In manufacturing branches, the machine industry, the manufacture of precision instruments and the watchmaking were already faced with the opposite winds due to the lack of impetus of the global situation. New American customs duties are likely to strengthen these difficulties. It is in these areas that entrepreneurs are the most pessimistic, according to Mr. Baechler.
On the other hand, the fact that drugs are, in any case, temporarily, exempt could allow chemistry-pharma to continue to “grow strongly” this year. The “med-tech” is “well positioned” too. Construction benefits from a “relatively solid” demand.
In the services, the hotel and restaurant could see its activity “tasting” after the rebound according to the COVVI-19 crisis and transportation to be “hampered by uncertainty”.
Other activities under the tertiary sector, that is, business services and real estate activities, financial services, public and parapublic services as well as trade should benefit from “robust” domestic demand.
This article was published automatically. Source: ATS
