This Latin injunction (outside all!) Pronounced when closing the Sistine Chapel doors to ensure the secrecy of the conclave debates could just as much serve in the tariff war triggered by Trump during the Liberation Day.
This Latin injunction (outside all!) Is pronounced by the master of liturgical celebrations when the doors of the sixtine chapel in the Vatican close to ensure the secret of the debates from the opening of the conclave. It could just as much serve in the pricing war launched by the American president during the release Day (02/04). All countries and economic zones have been affected by this American chaos in the ring in customs tariffs. After this real warning stroke, which has unscrewed the global scholarships, foreign exchange and rate markets, calm and reason returned among investors. The financial markets have taken into account the uncertainty to come, even if there are still a few quarters before seeing the damage on the macroeconomic and microeconomic level. The first quarterly publications are, and should remain good, since the first quarter of 2025 will not be impacted by the increase in customs duties in the United States.
Although there are indeed non-reciprocity anomalies between the United States and Europe (on car sales in particular), any constraint in global trade is perceived as bad news for the growth potential of world GDP. The latter has also been revised downwards by all large institutes and should rather be around 2 to 2.5% now. While some American companies encounter difficulties to repatriate their assembly tool (e.g. Apple with iPhones) on American soil, we must not neglect the significant investment amounts of American tech in artificial intelligence (AI). Thus, the four magnificent (Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta) will spend 300 billion dollars on the subject for 2025 alone, enough to continue the machine America Inc. The construction of several new semiconductor production lines (TSMC) on American soil attests to this Re-Shuring movement (relocation).
In Europe, the hopes of a recovery will once again be disappointed in 2025, because the European cycle is, by nature, linked to that of the United States. Despite a high employment rate, an improvement in credit conditions thanks to the drop in rates initiated by the ECB and a control of inflation, household expenditure still stagnates. France, with its double political and budgetary problem, does not strengthen the idea of an acceleration of the momentum of activity on the old continent. At the very least, the euro zone has default from the arbitration of certain international investors scalded by the flip-flops of Donald Trump. The positive point for European consumers and American drivers, while Driving Season begins, lies in the drop in the price of the barrel of oil (60 dollars). And when you don’t have oil (or more ideas), it’s always better for the portfolio that petrol is cheaper !!!
Market weather
The value of the month
CAPGEMINI
After several disappointing results, the European leader in the IT council published better organic growth in turnover in the first quarter of 2025. The company estimates that the proper execution of contracts and an acceleration of growth will make it possible to maintain its operational margin around 13%. The company benefits from multiple attractive valuation (PER of 12x and VE/EBE of 6x for 2026).
The end word
While the 135 cardinals voters will meet, it is interesting to remember a few figures and made on the papacy. There were 264 popes for 266 pontiffs (Benoît IX having been pope three times). The last French pope dates from 1370, in the person of Corrézien Grégoire XI, who succeeded the Urban Italian VI, last pope to have been elected when he was not a cardinal voter within the conclave.
