FIGAROVOX/TRIBUNE – As Joe Biden painfully ends his mandate and the new American president will take office on Monday January 20, the historian depicts the astonishing commotion that is expected across the Atlantic.
André Kaspi is a historian and recognized specialist in the United States to which he has devoted numerous reference works. He recently published Watergate. American democracy put to the test (Archipoche, 2024).
On January 20, Donald Trump will become or re-become President of the United States. At his side, his “best friend” Elon Musk, the brilliant boss of PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, Neuralink, OpenAI, Twitter who became X, the richest man on the planet. For two months, Trump has continued to make sensational announcements, as if he already occupied the presidential chair. And Musk, who became Kekius Maximus to speculate on the bitcoinsurprises the world with his unexpected, violent, worrying declarations, contrary to diplomatic practices. A duo until when?
Meanwhile, Joe Biden is finishing his presidential term as best he can. He tries to make people believe that he would have won over Trump if the Democrats had not preferred Kamala Harris. He pardons those sentenced to death, without campaigning for the disappearance of the death penalty. He is trying to highlight the results of his presidency – while some of his collaborators do not fail to highlight, from now on, his weaknesses and his errors. He praises Jimmy Carter, the president criticized forty years ago, more or less rehabilitated today after his death, as if a comparable posterity was promised to him.
Donald Trump has never ceased to surprise. Nothing and no one can stop him. He will, he says, annex Greenland and restore United States authority over the Panama Canal. Perhaps it will make Canada the 51st State of the Union. He will stop the Ukrainian war “within 24 hours”. He will immediately obtain the release of the Israeli hostages still alive in the Hamas tunnels. It will impose new diplomatic relations in the Middle East. It will exclude from the territory of the United States 11 to 15 million illegal immigrants, with, perhaps, an exception for the most qualified among them whom American industry and agriculture cannot do without. It will protect the national market to promote employment and standards of living. He will destroy the last traces of wokisme and the aberrations to which it has given rise, such as “transgender madness”. The “deep state” which prevents reforms, which exerts harmful influences, will be fought with energy and success. Thousands of federal jobs will be lost. As head of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), Musk will be responsible for this.
Until now, the Republicans proposed a society managed by a low-intervention government, the Democrats took care of the interests of workers. Trump has upset this balance
André Kaspi
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And above all, it will resist with determination the political, territorial and economic ambitions of China. In short, a new America will arise. It will impose itself on the rest of the world. Trump expresses the certainty that it will be an unlimited victory after four years of battles to respond to the aspirations of a majority of his compatriots, to triumph over his political adversaries, to erase the traces of a Democratic presidency which has only weakened the United States. January 20, 2025 will not only be the day a new president takes office. For Donald Trump and Elon Musk, it will be, following the title of a Marlon Brando film, Revenge with two faces.
The 47e president, who was also the 45theshakes up political life in the United States and international relations around the world. Not because a Republican president succeeds a Democratic president. Nor is it the new victory of Ronald Reagan over Jimmy Carter. Trump is not Reagan’s political heir. It imposes a new definition of republicanism. Until now, the Republicans proposed a society managed by a minimally interventionist government, marked by the influence of the religious right, determined to defend national interests in its international relations. The Democrats supported the interests of workers, campaigned for changes in society, and developed a foreign policy open to the world. The electoral campaigns regularly opposed the two programs and gave victory to one, then to the other. Trump has upset this balance. The republicanism he defends borrows from democratic ideology.
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He also captured part of the Democratic electorate. He is now the champion of American workers threatened by immigrants, especially illegal immigrants. More and more Latinos and blacks are supporting him. Despite his wealth and the fortunes of his political friends, Trump is not the spokesperson for the economic elite alone. He does not plan to put down the Welfare State, the welfare state.
Nor is his vision of foreign policy that of Reagan. He makes statements that make the whole world tremble. They challenge traditional alliances. They look, more often than necessary, like provocations. China occupies the place of the main adversary. Trump is ready to engage his country, not in an armed conflict, but in an economic and trade war. This will be, he believes, the privileged area for the defense of American interests. This is why he will increase customs duties to protect industries from Mexican, Canadian, European and especially Chinese competition. He will lower taxes to stimulate growth. It will protect American jobs. He will turn his back on the defense of democracy in the world – Elon Musk’s recent statements prove it – as long as the United States defends its economic interests. This is the program that looks like “revenge” from the MAGA Republicans.
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