The return of Donald Trump to the White House, from January 20, is causing concern. It is very likely that the president-elect of the United States will resurrect the plan to open a consulate in Dakhla, which, if it comes to fruition, could push Morocco to “increase pressure on Spain so that she makes similar gestures,” said Eduard Soler, professor of international relations at UAB.Infobae. However, he excludes the opening by Rabat of a consulate in what was a Spanish colony until 1975. The expert considers that other “gestures” could be sought, in particular the extension of the Cervantes Institute.
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According to Soler, Trump's support for Morocco could also increase the risk that Rabat “does not feel satisfied” with the Spanish proposals and “attempts to activate its usual lever: migratory pressure”. The fact that the future American president has “more sympathies” for Morocco than for Spain constitutes an additional challenge in the event of new tensions between the two countries, such as those observed during the massive assault on Ceuta in 2021, believes – he, stressing that Rabat will have to carefully evaluate its actions and “consider the opportunity to weaken the Spanish government”. “Morocco must measure its actions to avoid creating an unfavorable political situation,” he adds. One thing is certain: “Morocco will always want more,” the expert is convinced.
To read: Trump re-elected: billions of dollars of investments in the Moroccan Sahara?
Welcoming Moroccan diplomacy, which is, according to him, “astute and knows how to recognize good times”, Soler believes that maintaining Nasser Bourita at the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a position he already occupied during Trump's previous mandate , guarantees “continuity in personal relationships”. Laurence Thieux, professor of international relations at UCM, does not entirely share Soler's opinion. The main consequence of Trump's return to the White House for the Maghreb will be “an emboldened and more assertive Morocco”, she believes, considering that for the American president, the Sahara question “is not a priority”.
Read: Sahara: why does Trump's return worry Spain?
According to Thieux, Trump will not exceed the measures already taken on the Sahara issue, with the exception of the possible opening of the consulate. Therefore, the academic does not see in this context a factor likely to increase pressure on Spain to fully recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. The two experts, however, warn against “another risk which could, ultimately, harm Spain: an intensification of tension and rivalry between Morocco and Algeria, which could lead to a direct confrontation between the two countries, which are vying for hegemony in the Maghreb. »
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