The Bank of Spain revises its 2024 growth forecast upwards to 3.1%

For 2025, the central bank is also raising its forecast for GDP growth by 0.3 points, to 2.5%.

The Bank of Spain on Tuesday revised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast upwards by 0.3 points for 2024, to 3.1%, despite the deadly floods of October 29 which affected the southeast of the country.

In the third quarter, the Spanish economy remained dynamic with growth of 0.8%, driven by sustained household consumption and strong exports, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE). In 2023, Spanish GDP grew by 2.7%.

Last November, the governor of the Bank of Spain José Luis Escrivá estimated that the floods could cost the country up to 0.2 points of growth.

The Bank of Spain estimates GDP growth in the fourth quarter at between 0.6% and 0.7%, slightly lower than the 0.8% in the third quarter.

“The uncertainty surrounding this estimate is high due to the difficulty of assessing the impact” of the floods, the organization specifies in a press release.

For 2025, the central bank is also reevaluating its GDP growth forecast upwards by 0.3 points to 2.5%, while keeping its outlook for 2026 unchanged at 1.9%, and warning of a slight slowdown in the economy in 2027, with growth of 1.7%.

The government, for its part, expects annual growth of 2.7% this year. This forecast, which has not been revised since the floods, is lower than those of most economic organizations, including the OECD, which expects 2.9%, and the European Commission, which is betting on 3%. .