the moment of truth for Europeans

Dor a month ago, Russia’s war against Ukraine has moved beyond the scenario of a war of attrition to enter a particularly dangerous phase. Increasingly intense, the fighting is part of a logic of deliberate escalation, triggered by Russia in October with the call for help from North Korean troops.

The United States responded by authorizing kyiv to strike military targets on Russian territory using long-range missiles delivered to Ukraine by its Western allies, an authorization that Ukrainian forces immediately put into practice.

Moscow responded by firing a latest generation intermediate-range ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. In a solemn address on television, President Vladimir Putin, who modified his nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for using this weapon, accused the West of “globalizing” the conflict.

There is obviously an element of gesticulation and a desire for intimidation in the Kremlin, at a time when Washington is preparing for a radical political change with the inauguration, on January 20, of President-elect Donald Trump. There is also a desperate attempt in kyiv to hold the front so as not to approach possible negotiations from a position of weakness. For the same reasons, Russian forces are becoming more and more offensive.

Thus, the battle rages in the Russian region of Kursk, where the Ukrainian army made a surprise incursion in August and conquered territory which kyiv would like to use as a bargaining chip in a future negotiation. Supported by North Korean soldiers, Russian forces have now recaptured half of the territory captured this summer, according to a Ukrainian diplomatic source.

No time to waste

This brutal acceleration of the conflict, also linked to uncertainty over the intentions of Donald Trump, who promised to end the war but without saying how, is forcing the Europeans to redefine their position. In reality, the moment of truth that they have long hoped to escape, as if they could indefinitely ignore that this war is first and foremost a European war, has arrived.

Unsurprisingly, they are very divided on the attitude to adopt. There is, however, no time to lose: the Ukrainian forces are in real difficulty, the civilian population is once again subjected to intense Russian bombings, the energy infrastructures are targeted by a systematic destruction campaign. Without waiting to know the Trump administration’s plan, Europeans must urgently organize themselves to support Ukraine and anticipate a Russian-Ukrainian negotiation under the aegis of the United States aimed at putting an end to the hot phase of war – negotiation for which Mr. Putin currently shows no inclination.

Some Europeans have started. The countries most determined to confront the Russian threat, including France, the United Kingdom, Poland, the Nordic and Baltic states, are currently holding discussions, with which kyiv is associated, on the measures to be taken to mitigate a possible American disengagement from Ukraine. Sending European military personnel to Ukraine is once again being considered, with emphasis on strengthening the defense industry. These countries must continue their efforts despite the absence of European consensus and demand to be represented when the cessation of hostilities will finally be discussed.