In Baku, the worrying drying up of the Caspian Sea | Climate: where are we?

BAKU, Azerbaijan – For thirty years, the level of the Caspian Sea has been falling at a worrying rate. Marine life as well as the port and economic activities of an entire region are threatened.

The governments of the five riparian countries – Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Azerbaijan – are very concerned about the situation. On its beaches, the populations are just as happy.

The Caspian is more than 371,000 km long²a little more than the area of ​​Germany. This giant was until recently the economic heart of the small town of Dubandi, located east of Baku in Azerbaijan.

But today, the sea has receded so much that the fishing pier collapsed and its skeleton ended up sailing away. Since then, it has looked like a boat cemetery. Beached boats are left abandoned on this beach which grows every year.

Fikret Khashimov is one of those whose fishing boat is no longer useful here. Fishing rod in hand, the fisherman hopes that the sea will be generous today. But to his great despair, the fish no longer bite the hook much. Being a fisherman already didn’t bring him much, he anticipates having to change his livelihood soon. No choice, he says, he has mouths to feed.

It’s disturbing, the water is receding, the fish are smaller and there are a lot fewer of them.

The retreat of the Caspian Sea is caused by several factors, but the most important is climate change. Basically, temperatures rise, water evaporates, and precipitation decreases. A perfect cocktail to sign the death warrant of the Caspian.

According to a published study (New window) in the scientific journal Nature in 2023 (in English), the Caspian Sea would have retreated by 7 centimeters per year between 1996 and 2015 on average. And according to the hydrometeorological service of Azerbaijan over the past 30 years, the water level has fallen by 2.5 meters.

NASA satellite images from 2006 and 2022 are also very telling.

Among the other aggravating factors, we note that the contribution of the 140 rivers which supply it is deteriorating. But particularly that of the Volga and Ural rivers, the two main arteries. And in Russia, the construction of around forty dams on the Volga River and around ten more to come is also limiting the flow of water into the Caspian Sea.

There are fears in the region that it could suffer the same fate as the Aral Sea, a saltwater lake in Central Asia that has partially disappeared.

A disaster

Fears shared by Fikrad Jafarov, a doctor of biology and specialist in the Caspian Sea in Azerbaijan.

The scientist with a serious look and whose hair color betrays his age is very worried. The biologist recalls that the Caspian Sea has already experienced fluctuations in its levels in the past. But what is shocking this time is the speed at which the levels are falling.

According to him, the decrease in the waters of the Caspian Sea severely disrupts the ecosystem and biomass.

Fish stocks are considerably reduced and certain regions that used to rely on fisheries are having great difficulty coping with these changes. Fikrad Jafarov estimates that financial losses in the fishing sector amount to several million dollars per year.

For the scientist it is a real disaster. And for the man who grew up here it is just as true. The beaches of the Caspian Sea remind him of meals shared with family on Sundays when he was still a kid. Then walks with friends as a teenager. And hot summer nights where his first loves were declared. For the people here, the sea is life and to see it retreat is a disaster, he says.

A disaster all the more so since the region is known worldwide for its caviar. But the sturgeon, called here the beluga, has now been an endangered species for almost twenty years. Overfishing, illegal trade and pollution are factors that have contributed to its decline.

As a last resort, Azerbaijan focuses on breeding and regularly releases fish into the water. But given the current context, the chances of the golden egg fish recovering are disappearing like snow in the sun.

Moreover, for the record, the famous Baku caviar was served to Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin and Franklin D. Roosevelt during the famous Yalta conference in February 1945.

The Caspian Sea at COP 29

It’s hard not to talk about the Caspian Sea at the climate summit at COP 29, which is being held in Baku. The body of water is visible and accessible almost everywhere in the city.

Azerbaijan took the opportunity to create an expert group that includes the other riparian states (Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) to assess the challenges and find solutions. The five countries bordering the sea have declared a state of emergency or at least expressed great concern about its state.

If the impacts on biodiversity are major, they are also major for the region’s economy, said Azerbaijan’s Deputy Minister of the Environment, Umayra Taghiyeva. She recalls that the Caspian Sea is at the heart of trade in the region. His country is evaluating the reconstruction of certain commercial ports, because in some places there is no longer the depth required for cargo ships to be able to dock.

Tackling the problem is good, but its source in Azerbaijan is little discussed: greenhouse gas emissions that come from the oil and gas sector. Azerbaijani soil is full of oil and gas.

According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy from June 2021, to the end of 2020, its oil reserves of 7 billion barrels (1 Mt) represented 0.4% of global reserves.

Azerbaijan also has around 2.5 trillion cubic meters of proven natural gas reserves. President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev (New window)also said, in a speech to the COP 29 delegates, that these fossil resources were a gift from god.

After the breakup of the Soviet Union, petrodollars transformed the Republic of Azerbaijan. You just have to walk around Baku to forget that you are in a country where the GDP per capita is less than US$8,000.

Bold architectural constructions sit alongside European-style apartments. Here, tradition and modernity coexist. The country is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions, but not to the extent of stopping exploiting its fossil resources.

But delaying climate action comes at a price. And the Caspian Sea doesn’t have the luxury of waiting.