In Senegal, power in a position of strength in the National Assembly to implement its “rupture” program

The victory is clear for Ousmane Sonko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye. After the triumph of the second in the presidential election eight months ago, the executive tandem in Senegal is now in a position of strength in the National Assembly. Their party, the African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (Pastef), won three quarters of the seats (130 out of 165) during the early legislative elections on Sunday, November 17, according to provisional results. A tidal wave which offers the Prime Minister, Ousmane Sonko, complete latitude to apply a program of « rupture » likely to give the opposition a cold sweat.

As of Wednesday, in the Council of Ministers, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye welcomed the opening of the « phase de rectification […] and accountability”, synonymous with tracking down those who illicitly enriched themselves under the two mandates of Macky Sall (2012-2024). In recent months, Mr. Sonko has increased attacks and insinuations on misappropriation of public funds and financial mismanagement revealed by audits carried out in several ministries and administrations. According to the former tax inspector, these are, for example, almost “1,000 billion CFA francs” (around 1.5 billion euros) which were allegedly discovered in the bank account of a former dignitary whose name has not been revealed.

“These people looted, sold off inalienable property of the State of Senegal, which they offered to their friends,” supports a close friend of the Prime Minister.

Lawsuits

In the sights of the authorities is Macky Sall. Installed in Morocco in the hours following his transfer of power, the former head of state tried to return during the legislative elections. Despite his position at the top of the list, he only garnered 16 seats out of 165. Too thin to ensure political protection while Ousmane Sonko set the tone during a press conference in September, accusing M . Sall to have “falsified” the budget deficit and hidden public debt, which would amount to 76.3% of GDP instead of the 65.9% announced.

To him, to his Prime Minister Amadou Ba (elected deputy) as well as to other former finance ministers (like Mamadou Moustapha Ba, who killed himself at the beginning of November in Paris, according to the French authorities), he promised proceedings before the High Court of Justice. “When it is installed, people will know that we have proof of what we said, including account statements,” he assured on television on the eve of the election.

Made up of sixteen deputies and chaired by a magistrate, this institution included in the Constitution was only used once, in 1962, in the conflict between President Léopold Sédar Senghor and his Prime Minister Mamadou Dia. “Under the mandates of Abdoulaye Wade or Macky Sall, the members of this court were never appointed. No doubt because it went against the interests of the powers of the time. judge Alassane Ndao, professor-researcher in political science at Gaston-Berger University in Saint-Louis.

This promise of moralizing political life is not new in Senegal, but it has already shown its limits. In 2012, Macky Sall, at the start of his first mandate, resurrected the Court for the Repression of Illicit Enrichment (CREI), before it was criticized for its politicization. Only Karim Wade, son of Abdoulaye Wade and rival of Macky Sall, was convicted in 2019 for various financial embezzlement, thus excluding him from the presidential race.

“The context is not the same today, nuance Babacar Ndiaye, political scientist at the Wathi think tank. In his time, Macky Sall had to pursue people with whom he had traveled. The Pastef, who has never governed, is not caught in these links. However, it would be a mistake for its leaders to focus solely on accountability. The time for justice is long, but people are waiting for economic reforms to improve their daily lives. »

Dilemma

For those in power, the absolute emergency remains the vote on the 2025 budget before the end of the year. A challenge given the schedule. After validation of the results, it will be necessary to constitute the office of the Assembly, elect its president… before voting on the finance law. In a context of budget deficit estimated by the authorities at 10.4% of GDP, the presidential majority seems pushed to reduce public spending.

Hence the idea of ​​voting to end the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE) and the High Council of Local Authorities (HCCT), the abolition of which was rejected in September. “For Pastef, these bodies have fueled clientelism for years by serving as a base for the allies of successive leaders. Removing them means saving 15 billion CFA francs per year, which is not negligible for the 2025 budget. calculate Alassane Ndao.

Another obstacle stands on the government's budgetary roadmap. Pending validation by the Court of Auditors of the true public deficit figures, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suspended the payment of its $1.9 billion loan, leaving Mr. Sonko facing a dilemma: cut back on energy subsidies to facilitate future IMF disbursements or maintain its promises of social justice?

“It seems unlikely that the government will launch a strict austerity plan. He can opt for an increase in electricity prices without risking unpopularity. Especially since Senegal has twice this year obtained facilities to borrow on international markets despite its economic difficulties, analyzes François Conradie, political scientist at Oxford Economics Africa. As for the IMF, it may be less intransigent due to the geopolitical context. Given the difficulties encountered by Westerners in West Africa, Senegal is a country that needs to be taken care of. »