Secret red lines
“The text caricatures the positions of developed and developing countries,” said Joe Thwaites, of the NGO NRDC. “The presidency must propose a third option to reconcile them.” The absence of figures for rich countries “is an insult to the millions of people on the climate change front,” responded Jasper Inventor, head of the Greenpeace International delegation in Baku.
“The absence of a conciliatory proposal and figures still leaves a huge amount of work for negotiators to accomplish in the next two days,” also commented Rob Moore, of the E3G think tank. But “everyone is working on an agreement,” confides a veteran of the negotiations. At the COP, no one reveals their real red lines until the last day.
Developed countries today provide around a hundred billion dollars in financial aid to developing countries so that they can adapt to climate change and invest in low-carbon energy. COP29 must set a new aid objective until 2030 or 2035.
The conference is due to end on Friday evening, but few COPs have concluded on time. “Developed countries must urgently fill in the boxes and show their financial cards to allow negotiations to move forward,” reacted Mohamed Adow, from the Power Shift Africa think tank.
Looking for a 3rd way
The first option of the text published Thursday reflects the demands of developing countries. Without giving a precise figure, it asks that “X” trillions of dollars per year be provided by the public money of the 23 rich countries currently obliged to contribute according to UN texts – mainly Europe, the United States and Japan. – and by associated private funds, “over the period 2025-2035”, and essentially in the form of donations rather than loans.
That is much more than the 100 billion that rich countries had committed to providing over the period 2020-2025. An unrealistic option for rich countries, especially in times of budgetary tightening. Especially since this option does not provide for any expansion of the list of contributors to countries like China, Singapore or Qatar.
The second option summarizes the view of rich countries: the financial goal would be “an increase in global finance for climate action” to “X” trillion dollars per year “by 2035”. But this objective would include “all sources of finance”, including public money from each country in the world, private funds or even new global taxes, for example on aviation or maritime transport.
“An equal level of discontent”
This option avoids quantifying the financial commitment of rich countries, which since the start of the summit have said they want to wait before proposing their figure, to the great dismay of developing countries. “This new text presents both ends of each camp without leaving much room for compromise,” commented Li Shuo, an expert at the Asia Society Policy Institute think tank.
The initiative now falls to the Azerbaijani presidency of the conference. It will have to find the right balance to submit to the nearly 200 countries of the COP an acceptable text, and which allows everyone to return home “with an equal level of discontent”, in the words of the chief negotiator. Azerbaijani, Yaltchin Rafiev.
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