This is what Ukraine’s missile launched into Russia looks like – and the nuclear doctrine Putin threatens to use in return

Will Russia react by drawing its nuclear arsenal? At 3:25 a.m. yesterday, Ukraine reportedly struck a site in the Bryansk region of Russia, not far from the Ukrainian border, with ATACMS long-range tactical missiles, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. This assertion comes a few days after US President Joe Biden gave Ukraine the green light to strike Russian soil with these ATACMS missiles, which Moscow had presented as a red line not to be crossed. As of Tuesday, Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold required to use nuclear weapons.

The Ukrainian strike by an ATACMS missile

The missile

Tuesday’s strike

The ATACMS missile targeted the Bryansk region of Russia yesterday, but the 300 km range of these missiles would allow Ukraine to target many other potential Russian military targets (see map above).

Russian nuclear doctrine: how Putin can “press the button”

1. Decision

Russian doctrine authorizes the use of nuclear weapons if:

• a key Russian nuclear site is attacked;
• the existence of the Russian state is threatened;
• nuclear weapons, mass destruction or ballistic missiles are used against Russia.

Vladimir Putin updated his nuclear doctrine on Tuesday: it now authorizes Russia to respond with nuclear weapons to a conventional missile attack, if this attack is supported by a nuclear power (which is the case here, since the Ukraine is supported, among others, by the United States).

2. Transmission

Putin transmits the order to use nuclear weapons using a suitcase, called Cheget, kept near the president at all times and connecting him to the general staff.

The suitcase therefore does not contain a “nuclear button” as one might imagine, but the order transmission system.

3. Launch

The Russian general staff, which brings together officers with access to the launch codes, has two ways of launching the attack.

• By transmission of codes: transmitted by the general staff to the commanders responsible for handling nuclear weapons (missile launchers, submarines, etc.).
• Pre-recorded order: automatically sent to intercontinental missile commanders if a nuclear attack is detected by sensors.