“Now that Donald Trump is back in power, let’s plan the Europeanization of NATO”

MNow that Donald Trump has returned to power and his entourage is multiplying approximate declarations on the military accountability of Europe, leaders should be proactive in relaunching an old idea: the Europeanization of NATO. Why this concept?

First of all because, beyond Trump, American society is changing more quickly than expected. According to the US Census Bureau, 90% of Americans had European origins at the time of the signing of the Atlantic Treaty in 1949. They will be less than half in 2050, according to various projections.

The same goes for trade: the proportion of import-export of goods to Europe totaled more than 40% of American foreign trade in 1950. This same ratio has also fallen by half to reach 20-21% today. today, according to calculations based on the exchange of goods encrypted by American customs.

Develop a transition plan

Another signal, parallel to the underlying trends mentioned above: according to the Pentagon, the United States has only sent around 20,000 additional troops to Europe since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which brings their total today now at around 100,000, only a third of the American military volumes seen during the Cold War.

Europe will remain a vital interest for the United States because of the size of its economy. But it’s time to stop pretending that the old relationship can be fully restored. Without daring to officially recognize it, the Europeans are already in the process of Europeanizing NATO, de facto: increase in defense budgets, integration of Finland and Sweden this year, majority support of the Europeans for Ukraine. We think it would be time to recognize this shift in order to plan it better. What could such a transition plan look like between now and 2050?

First, the European Union (EU) should play a greater role in acquiring and mobilizing European defense assets to support NATO activities. The EU has financing capabilities that NATO lacks, such as taking on debt to finance defense projects. Where the Alliance sets procurement standards and targets, the Union will provide the resources.

The EU has already made great progress since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The 2023 European Defense Industrial Strategy, for example, aims to increase defense preparedness and strengthen the technological and industrial base defense of the EU, with the aim of bringing “Member States to purchase at least 40% of defense equipment collaboratively and 50% within the EU by 2030, rising to 60% by 2035” [comme l’indique le site de la Commission européenne]. Today, 78% of defense acquisitions in Europe come from outside Europe.

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