Tropics under watch: Sara could become a hurricane

Terminate a force

The tropical season is ending, but it remains active these days. In fact, it officially ends on November 30. An area is under close surveillance by the American National Hurricane Center. Meteorologists estimate a 90% chance that a tropical wave will become a storm within a week. This disturbance would have the potential to rapidly intensify into a hurricane. According to some observations, it could even become a major hurricane.

Storm Sara

Experts believe that the disturbed area has the potential to become a hurricane since the conditions are right. With very warm water on the surface, a lot of humidity in the atmosphere and low wind shear, the context is favorable for rapid intensification. If the system becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Sara. However, one factor could hinder its progression and intensification: contact with dry land. Its trajectory will need to be monitored.

Cuba and Mexico

According to models, the storm could progress towards the northwest, which would put Cuba and the Yucatan at risk. Remember that Hurricane Rafael hit this region a few days ago, particularly the far west of the Cuban island.

Florida again

Longer term, forecasts do not exclude the possibility that Sara will travel as far as west Florida. Only three hurricanes made landfall in the state in November: Nicole in 2022, Kate in 1985 and Yankee in 1935. At present, the level of confidence that such a scenario would materialize remains low.

With the collaboration of Nicolas Lessard, meteorologist.

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