The “October surprises”, last minute revelations which shake up the American presidential elections – rts.ch

From the attempted assassination of Donald Trump last July to Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race a few days later, elevating Kamala Harris to the top of the Democratic ticket, the 2024 presidential election campaign has already had with its share of surprising events.

But with less than three weeks before the election, should we still expect a new bombshell, as seems to be traditionally the case the month before D-Day?

In the United States, presidential elections are often marked by what is called in electoral jargon an “October Surprise”, in other words a last minute revelation capable of influencing the public opinion and disrupt the course of the campaign.

Chance or frame-up

According to Oscar Winberg, a specialist in American politics at the Finnish Institute for Advanced Studies in Turku, there are three types of “October surprises”: an unexpected diplomatic success of the United States on the international scene, a scandal old policy that resurfaces via a leak, or a major national event, such as a natural disaster, he explains to France24.

It is sometimes the result of chance, particularly when it comes to natural disasters, such as in 2012 with Hurricane Sandy. Of the studies suggest that at the time the favorable media coverage of his management by President Barack Obama, then seeking a second term, would have helped to strengthen his chances of re-election.

>> Also read: Hurricane Sandy disrupts the end of the US presidential election

Other times, it appears that these surprises are the result of a deliberate maneuver on one side or the other. Objective: to galvanize his supporters while destabilizing his opponents.

Iranian hostages

Although some historians have discovered examples dating back to the 1960s and even the 19th century, it was in 1980 that the term “October Surprise” was popularized, as the professor of history, journalism and specialist in the political and cultural history of the United States David Greenberg at the academic magazine Rutgers Today.

That year, President Jimmy Carter failed to free American hostages held in the United States embassy in Tehran. “This failure is one of the main reasons why he is losing in the polls to Ronald Reagan. The ‘October Surprise’ must have been his last-minute success in getting them released. Clearly, this did not work out. never produced,” recalls the expert.

Subsequently, it was suggested that the Reagan campaign had conspired with the Iranians to hold the hostages until the election, he continued. “This ploy, which has never been proven, was called the ‘October Surprise.’ Today the term refers to any major breaking news story.”

>> Read also: Switzerland’s role in the American hostage crisis emerges from the shadows

A video of Bin Laden

In 2004, the “October Surprise” was named after Bin Laden. On October 29, the Al Jazeera channel broadcast a video of Osama bin Laden in which he once again claims responsibility for the September 11 attacks and threatens the country. This event relaunches the campaign of George W. Bush, candidate for a second term, by bringing the war against terrorism to the heart of the electoral debate. The Republican will be re-elected a few days later.

The Hillary Clinton Email Affair

In 2016, another era, another video. On October 7, a video of Donald Trump filmed 11 years earlier resurfaced. We hear the Republican candidate describe his method of sexually assaulting women. The billionaire must publicly apologize. The Republican camp is trembling.

>> Reread: Donald Trump forced to apologize for past sexist remarks

This last minute revelation could have cost him the election. Except that three weeks later, on October 28, his opponent Hillary Clinton was not spared. FBI Director James Comey decides to re-examine sensitive emails written and received by the Democrat on an unsecured private email when she was Secretary of State.

According to David Greenberg, this could be one of the only “October surprises” that seems to have had a direct impact on the outcome of the election. “After this announcement, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Trump shrank and put her at a distance,” he underlines.

>> Reread: Hillary Clinton’s email affair revives the American campaign

According to estimates put forward by our colleagues at M6 InfoHowever, these surprise revelations only very slightly influence voting intentions, of the order of 1 to 2 points. But in a country where results are often very close, this can be enough to tip the scales one way or the other.

Fabien Grenon