One month before the 2024 US presidential election, the race is more uncertain than ever between Kamala Harris, Democratic candidate, and Donald Trump, former Republican president. National polls show a razor-thin gap between the two candidates, making every vote crucial in this tight contest.
A tight and uncertain race
According to the latest polls from FiveThirtyEight, Kamala Harris has around 49% of voting intentions, while Donald Trump follows closely with 46%. This slight lead for Harris highlights a particularly tight competition, especially in the Swing States, where results can change from one moment to the next. Undecided voters, who represent a significant portion of the electorate, could also play a key role in the outcome of this election.
An election played out in the Swing States
The United States does not appoint its president by direct vote, but via a system of electors, which accentuates the importance of key states.
In these swing states, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are redoubling their efforts to convince voters and obtain the margins necessary to win. According to the 270 to win electoral map, Harris is leading in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, where she obtains 54% and 52% of voting intentions, respectively. For his part, Donald Trump maintains his lead in North Carolina with 51% and in Georgia at 50%. Every percentage point counts, determining the outcome of this election.
Everything you need to know about the 2024 American presidential election
Who are the voters of the two candidates?
The electorate is sharply divided. According to Pew Research Center, Harris enjoys overwhelming support from ethnic minorities and young people. Trump, meanwhile, appeals primarily to white voters and people over 50. This divide shows the extent to which American political dynamics are influenced by the social identity, origin and age of voters, which are key factors in electoral choice.
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