Belarus: Lukashenko, on the verge of a seventh term

Belarusians vote on Sunday in the presidential election which should ensure a seventh consecutive mandate for the autocrat Alexander Lukashenko, a vote described as a “farce” by the opposition in exile.

“We have a brutal democracy in Belarus,” the president, in power since 1994, told journalists, after voting in Minsk for this election without any issues. He added that political prisoners detained in the country could request a pardon, while excluding any dialogue with the opposition in exile.

“What is happening today is a farce,” denounced the leader of the opposition in exile from Warsaw, Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa, while four candidates hand-picked by the government made appearances in the ballot. She called Mr. Lukashenko a “criminal who seized power,” and called for the release of all political prisoners and the holding of free elections.

Mr. Lukashenko, whom some suspect of wanting to transfer power to one of his three sons, has denied the rumor. His youngest son, Nikolai, “would not dream in his worst nightmare” of becoming president and “none of my sons could,” he assured journalists.

A staged election

The European Union, Mr. Lukashenko’s critics and human rights NGOs have already described this election as staged. With this presidential election, the 70-year-old leader intends to continue his reign for at least another five years at the head of this former Soviet republic bordering the EU, Ukraine and Russia.

During his sixth term, Alexander Lukashenko completely stifled any dissent after unprecedented demonstrations targeting him in 2020. He moved closer to Moscow, to the point of making his territory available to the Russian army to invade Ukraine in 2022.

In Minsk, Nadejda Goujalovskaïa, a 74-year-old retiree, who describes herself as a “patriot”, says she is coming to vote for “the first time in 20 years”. Like many voters, in the absence of an alternative, she voted for Alexander Lukashenko. “I don’t want a Maidan,” she explains, referring to the 2014 pro-democracy revolution in kyiv, Ukraine.

“Perhaps everything is not perfect, that we are not in a democracy…” she says half-heartedly, touching on a taboo subject in a very repressive context.

Peace in the country

Irina Lebedeva, 68, who votes “every time”, believes for her part that “thanks to our president, there is peace in the country”, an argument repeated by the Belarusians met in recent days by AFP .

In Brussels, the head of European diplomacy Kaja Kallas estimated on Saturday that Mr. Lukashenko “has no legitimacy”. She described the vote as a “masquerade” and an “affront to democracy”.

In an interview with AFP at the beginning of January, opponent Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa, candidate for the 2020 presidential election, denounced a “sham” election.

In his customary martial style, Alexander Lukashenko warned his opponents on Friday: “We will never repeat what happened in 2020!” At the time, tens of thousands of Belarusians took to the streets to denounce a rigged presidential election.

Supported by his Russian ally Vladimir Putin, he managed to consolidate his power with arrests, violence and long prison sentences targeting opponents, journalists, NGO employees and simple demonstrators.

300,000 people fled

According to the UN, more than 300,000 Belarusians, out of a population of nine million, have fled their country for political reasons, mainly to Poland. Faced with this repression, the West imposed heavy sanctions on Belarus, leading Alexander Lukashenko to accelerate his rapprochement with the Kremlin, abandoning his balancing act between Moscow and the West.

Illustration of this alliance, Belarusian territory served as a rear base for Vladimir Putin’s forces in February 2022 to invade Ukraine. And Moscow deployed tactical nuclear weapons there in the summer of 2023, a threat to kyiv but also to NATO members bordering Belarus (Lithuania, Latvia, Poland).

Mr. Lukashenko, a colorful character who likes to appear in uniform, at the wheel of a tractor or with a weapon in his hand, has posed as a bulwark against the chaos of the war in Ukraine. This mustachioed man with an imposing build also likes touring factories. Former collective farm director, known for his unapologetic macho style, he is pleased to have maintained an economy largely controlled by the state.

Human rights organizations estimate that the country still has more than 1,200 political prisoners.

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