Trump creates panic for an international Geneva in crisis

A wind of panic is blowing through international Geneva. Donald Trump signed a flurry of presidential decrees on Monday, the day of his inauguration, several of which will have devastating effects on the United Nations system and the world of NGOs. Already faced with a severe drop in funding, those involved in development aid and humanitarian action will no longer be able to carry out their mission. One after another, major donor countries are turning their backs on the multilateral system. See instead.

Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of the United States from the World Health Organization (WHO) based in Geneva, a UN agency of which Washington covers 18% of the financing. He also announced that his country will leave – again – the Paris Climate Agreement. There will be cuts in contributions to organizations working in this area.

That’s not all. The president suspended all development aid for ninety days, just to verify its effectiveness and its alignment with the foreign policy of the new tenant of the White House. This is a significant part of international aid that is at risk, because the United States is the largest donor: $63.5 billion in 2023, according to OECD figures.

Cups in Europe

The threat is all the more serious as it comes at a time when other donor countries have already started a decline in contributions, marking an alarming turning point, note Nilima Gulrajani and Jessica Pudussery, researchers at the ODI Global think tank in London. “Foreign aid spending had reached a record high of $223 billion in 2023. But last year, eight rich countries announced a $17.2 billion cut in official development assistance and three more are talking about reductions over the next five years.”

Thus Germany, number two in international aid, paid $32.2 billion in 2023, but the Social Democratic Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, announced a reduction of $2 billion in 2024. And if the very conservative Friedrich Merz wins the legislative elections in February, we can expect further cuts.

France also, which had devoted 15.4 billion dollars to development aid in 2023, reduced by 1 billion in 2024. In fact, two thirds of the countries of the European Union are in the process of tightening their cooperation budget. And even Switzerland has just debated it in parliament.

Ukraine alone receives a tenth of all development aid. This is clearly a priority for major donor countries, which are also members of NATO. And in seven of these countries, a quarter of the envelope intended for international cooperation does not leave the territory because it covers expenses linked to welcoming refugees.

Explosion of needs

In short, Donald Trump’s decrees aggravate an already critical situation. “It’s a huge problem for international organizations,” confirms political scientist Daniel Warner, who was for a long time deputy director of IHEID in Geneva. In 2023, the Palais des Nations closed briefly for reasons of economy, because the United States Congress blocked its contribution to the UN, he recalls.

“In NGOs as in the UN, there is panic,” notes Oshani Perera, director of programs at the Shamba Center for Food and Climate, based in Geneva. “We see incomes decreasing while needs are increasing linked to the climate crisis, natural disasters, wars or pandemics.”

It’s not easy to find alternative sources of income. “Funding is not obtained all at once,” notes Oshani Perera. Between donors and NGOs, trust is built little by little, it takes time. Some organizations are fortunate to already be supported by philanthropists, but we can expect more competition in the future.”

“We have seen that some UN agencies are already planning cuts of 10% to 15%,” she continues. Others approach the Gulf petromonarchies. But they only get funds if it serves the interest of these states. For example, it will be possible to finance “vertical farms” – a project to adapt to climate change – but not programs to combat global warming involving the transition to renewable energies.”

Death of multilateralism?

And China? It too would only push its own interests, exactly like Trump’s America, argues Daniel Warner. “It is no longer a question of the common good, of collective responsibility, of international solidarity. Now all that matters is the national interest. Some predict the end of the multilateral system. The UN is already no longer on the front line to resolve armed conflicts. This is evident in the Middle East and Ukraine. But in addition, the United Nations is hampered in development aid and humanitarian action.”

“The whole system around the United Nations was built in the aftermath of the Second World War, because people understood the urgency of cooperation. Dreams of national grandeur had led to the worst, recalls the political scientist. Today, we clearly see that there is a swing back, a nostalgic retreat towards a world that we understood better: our country, our community, our family. A conservative reaction to rapid societal changes. And perhaps also a loss of sensitivity to others, a distance introduced by new technologies.”

“Could cuts in development aid be an opportunity to reduce dependence on rich countries?” asks Oshani Perera. “This might be possible in countries where hunger has been eradicated. But for the poorest, completely dependent countries, the shock will be as devastating as the Covid pandemic.”

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