Traditionally a formality, this roost election is complicated this year by the slim majority of Republicans in the lower house. Mike Johnson is therefore not guaranteed to be re-elected.
A crucial vote. The American House of Representatives elects its “speaker” on Friday, January 3. But faced with open opposition from elected officials from his own camp, Republican Mike Johnson is not guaranteed to retain this key position, and Congress could once again plunge into turmoil. Traditionally a formality, this roost election is complicated this year by Republicans' slim majority in the lower house – just five seats. Mike Johnson therefore knows that he cannot afford many defections in his camp. “We're going to have a margin of probably two votes“, he told Fox News on Thursday, adding that he could not “afford to lose only one or two».
However, there are already several who have expressed their reluctance, or even their frank “no”, towards the candidacy of the elected official from Louisiana, “speaker” for a little over a year. “Almost all my colleagues know that Mike Johnson is not fit to be a speaker, but no one wants to say what is obvious.“, declared the most vocal of them, Republican Thomas Massie, in an interview with Cincinnati Enquirer.
RICHARD PIERRIN / AFPAFP
A “good, hard-working, and religious man”
Mike Johnson, however, was confident in another interview on Fox Business, believing he could be elected quickly. He also knows that he can count on the support of Donald Trump, who hopes to avoid a pitched battle between Republicans in Congress before his return to the White House on January 20. “Mike has my full and complete support“, launched the future American president on his Truth Social platform on Monday, calling him “good man, hardworking, and religious».
Billionaire Elon Musk, who has become one of the most important voices in Washington since his thunderous alliance with Donald Trump, followed suit. “I think the same thing. You have my full support“, he responded on his social network X to Mike Johnson, who welcomed the president-elect’s message in his favor.
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But the support of the two influential billionaires may not be enough and a rejection of Mike Johnson's candidacy could represent a new snub in Congress for Donald Trump. Just before Christmas, the president-elect did not obtain the inclusion in a budgetary text of a measure on the debt ceiling which he nevertheless demanded loud and clear. And a new failure could give a glimpse of the difficulties that the Republican would have in getting his program through Congress in the first months of his presidency.
Internal struggles
The battle for the perch which looms on Friday has the air of déjà vu, after the unprecedented dismissal a year ago of the previous president of the lower house, Kevin McCarthy. A fall orchestrated by the Trumpist fringe in Congress, which accused Kevin McCarthy of having increased the deficit by giving in too much to the Democrats – accusations that we now find against Mike Johnson. The dismissal gave rise to a 22-day psychodrama and exposed the internal struggles of the Republican camp to broad daylight.
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Less than three weeks before his return to the White House, Donald Trump therefore wishes to avoid this type of scenario, especially since without a “speaker”, the House of Representatives would find itself unable to act, and therefore to certify his victory in the presidential election, during a session scheduled for Monday. If Mike Johnson does not reach the majority of votes cast on Friday, the ballot will be repeated in the following hours and days, with behind-the-scenes negotiations, until the lucky one is found on the perch. In the meantime, uncertainty reigns.
