Soliciting confidence with the aim of not obtaining it is not a trivial gesture in a country where, due to its past, political stability is particularly cherished. As many observers noted yesterday, asking the question of confidence remains a “historic” event, used, before Olaf Scholz, only five times. The last one dates from July 2005 and the failed bet of the social democrat Gerhard Schröder, who was overtaken during the early elections of October 2005 by the Christian Democrats and had to give way, despite himself, to a very young… Angela Merkel .
Olaf Scholz loses the confidence of deputies, Germany towards early elections
Asking the question of trust remains a “historic” event, used, before Olaf Scholz, only five times.
On paper, Olaf Scholz did not have many options other than to trigger this early election process. On November 6, the Social Democrat lost its majority in the Bundestag, after the dismissal of its Finance Minister, the liberal Christian Lindner, for incompatibility on the state budget. Certainly, Olaf Scholz could have remained in power until September 2025 with a minority government but he would have had to seek agreements with the opposition for each of his texts, in a very difficult context, between economic crisis and war in Ukraine. Hence the choice to dissolve the Bundestag.
“Worst chancellor in history” or in power “at the wrong time”? Olaf Scholz facing his destiny
Amazing confidence
Olaf Scholz, however, is playing very big by initiating new legislative elections. If we are to believe the various opinion surveys, his party has, as it stands, very little chance of coming out on top in the election in two months. The SPD is, at best, credited with 17% of voting intentions, far behind the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) of Friedrich Merz. Olaf Scholz’s popularity rating is also plummeting, as he is often perceived as a poor communicator. And yet, it is he, this weakened chancellor, who will lead the SPD into the elections, with quite astonishing confidence. Already in 2021, the Social Democrats were seen as losers in the polls before winning the vote down to the wire.
This Monday, combative in front of the deputies of the Bundestag, Olaf Scholz defended his record and the reforms passed, often painfully, over the last three years. He also advocated the need to invest in the infrastructure of the future, rail, renewable energies, defense, pensions, social, without cutting corners on aid to Ukraine. How ? Via a reform of the debt brake rule and by increasing certain taxes. “If there is a country that can do it, it’s ours.”he launched this Monday, recalling that Germany’s public debt is by far the lowest of the G7 countries. The opposition, for its part, seized the opportunity of this debate, bitter and tense, to pillorie a tripartite coalition which, according to the CDU, leaves the country in the middle of an economic crisis.
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For political scientist Julia Reuschenbach of the Free University of Berlin, however, the race remains open. “Olaf Scholz has always been underestimated, I do not exclude that he could win, like in 2021. Things can change very quickly in such a short campaign. Other candidates must avoid any mistakes.”she believes. Results, in February.
