Late Wednesday afternoon, just as Michel Barnier was making his last stand at the Assembly, the President of the European Commission was flying over France towards Montevideo (Uruguay), where a summit of heads of state was being held. State of Mercosur. Ignoring the revolt of part of the agricultural world, Ursula von der Leyen triumphantly announced the next day that she had “set foot in South America” to conclude the largest association agreement ever signed by the EU and the creation of a “market of 700 million consumers”, provoking the ire of France.
“Unacceptable” for the Élysée
“His ticket was reserved, but there were still one or two points outstanding,” explains a European source who assures that the trip was only confirmed at the last minute. These points were resolved Friday during a final conclave with South American leaders. “This is the beginning of a new story,” posted the German on X, after having ratified the agreement which had been in negotiation for twenty-five years. “Treason”, reacted the French political class. The agreement “remains unacceptable as it stands”, commented the Élysée.
The German state is ready to come to the aid of the giant Thyssenkrupp
In Brussels, his many supporters believe that it was all about « momentum ». The imminent arrival of Donald Trump at the White House and the approach of early elections in Germany required action quickly. For others, the political weakening of Emmanuel Macron, the most virulent of his adversaries on this issue, convinced the leader to step up the fire.
“After the dissolution of June, she smelled blood,” dares a European diplomat. Now, the barometer of relations between Paris and Brussels is at its lowest, to the point that Ursula von der Leyen canceled her presence at the reopening of Notre-Dame yesterday. A Commission spokesperson explained, without convincing, that his absence was due to a simple “poor internal communication”.
The enormous edifice of this treatise of thousands of pages will not necessarily have the solidity of a cathedral. It must now obtain the approval of the European Parliament and above all, before that, of the Member States. Before he resigned, Michel Barnier had planned to meet his counterpart Giorgia Meloni on Thursday in Rome. His strategy, which will probably also be that of his successor: lead a coalition of member states to block the approval procedure. “We do not adhere to the text without modifications”, the President of the Italian Council said on Friday.
Expected guarantees
France will also be able to count on the support of Poland, whose poultry producers, leaders in Europe, are worried about future competition from the Brazilian giant JBS. Austria and Ireland also have reservations.
A coalition between these five countries would easily reach the threshold of 35% of the European population necessary to block the approval of the text by the Council of Ministers of the EU and suspend its examination by Parliament.
For now, we are waiting to know the exact outcome of the negotiations over the last few months. The Commission, which should publish the text of the agreement next week, says it has obtained guarantees on one of the red lines drawn by France: compliance with the Paris climate agreement by the five Mercosur countries. Von der Leyen wanted to reassure farmers by promising them that he had obtained “strong guarantees to protect [leurs] means of subsistence”. It remains to be seen whether this is enough to assuage their discontent.
