Despite a policy aimed at boosting the birth rate, the population continues to decline in Hungary. Several reasons are put forward: aid from Prime Minister Viktor Orban is only intended for a certain category of the population and the lack of resources in schools often pushes young parents to emigrate.
For a decade, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has sought to revive the birth rate in his country by distributing bonuses to parents, granting them tax reductions and attractive credit conditions.
These measures are very popular, including among the future American vice-president JD Vance, who would like the United States to take inspiration from them. But this policy did not have the expected success: the fertility rate fell to 1.39 (less than the European average) and the Hungarian population continued to decline.
Have a child in exchange for money
Before inheriting a small family home, Emese lived with her husband Marton and two children in a small apartment. The family moved there and carried out renovation and expansion work with help from Viktor Orban’s government. They now live in this house with a large garden on the outskirts of Budapest and Emese is expecting a fourth child.
To benefit from the government loan, the couple committed to having a third child. In return, the loan was canceled, explains Marton on Monday in Tout un monde. “We had the ‘baby loan’, of around 25,000 euros, then we had another loan of 25,000 euros, the ‘Tchok’. We can spend the ‘baby loan’ as we want, but the ‘Tchok’ is only for buying or building a home and if you commit to having three children, the credits become a donation.”
In total, the couple received the equivalent of 47,000 francs, which financed half of their house. The government gifts don’t stop there: Emese and Marton are entitled to such tax reductions that they no longer pay taxes.
Limits
The Orban government invests a lot of money in these subsidies: 5% of GDP, twice as much as the defense budget. However, there are still not enough births. And Hungary, which refuses all immigration, continues to see its population decline: in a decade, the country has gone from 10 to 9.6 million inhabitants.
You must be an employee with an employment contract and have a certain salary level
Viktor Orban recognized the limits of his policy: “We have slowed the demographic decline, but we have not reversed the trend.”
Too many conditions and cost of living
Why don’t these measures work? For Eva Fodor, professor at the Central European University, government gifts are reserved for too few. You must be married and meet many conditions. “You have to be an employee with an employment contract and have a certain level of salary. Many poor families are not entitled to anything because their job is not declared.”
Young people of childbearing age leave Hungary
Another limit to the effectiveness of these measures is cyclical: over the last two years, food consumption has increased by 50%.
Emigration of young parents
If the Orban government is generous with the middle class, on the other hand schools and hospitals are cruelly lacking in resources. And this pushes young people to emigrate, notes researcher Ivett Szamla. “Young people of childbearing age are leaving Hungary. They find that the school is not of a good standard and they worry about the quality of medical care and what could happen to their children if they become seriously ill.”
Officially, nearly 400,000 Hungarians have left the country. Unofficially, there are around a million people who have emigrated over the last ten years.
Florence La Bruyère/juma
