In early 2019, it took control of the majority of Idlib province (northwest) to the detriment of other rebel groups. And he created a “salvation government”, which controls Idlib’s economy and to which most of the appointed judges are loyal.
“The rebels have begun to put in place proto-governance structures,” notes the Soufan Center, based in New York. “Some of these efforts are years old, with sophisticated attempts to subsidize food prices and stabilize the banking and energy sectors.”
With UN agencies, the salvation government “provides essential services to the population”, Jérôme Drevon, jihadism expert for the ICG, told AFP. And even if some consider it authoritarian, “it provides homogeneous governance which contrasts with other Syrian regions”.
“Insurgent group”
In mid-2023, French journalist Wassim Nasr met the leader of HTS, Abu Muhammad al-Joulani, in Idlib province.
“He and his group are no longer engaged in international jihad (…). They consider that it ‘brings only destruction and failure,'” he explained upon his return to the academy’s CTC Sentinel magazine. American military West Point.
“Girls go to school, women drive, we see people smoking in the street. Of course, they are far from espousing democratic values or those of a liberal society but it is a shift.”
A development which Jérôme Drevon judges has proven its sincerity. “In January 2017, one could wonder if it was a tactical move by Al-Qaeda to avoid attracting the attention of countries like the United States” on HTS, he recalls. “But now it behaves like an insurgent group”, without “the dimension of international terrorism”.
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For him, this ideological shift and its power in the face of Bashar al-Assad’s regime should push Westerners “to reconsider their relationship” with HTS.
If this group remains considered terrorist by the UN, the United States and certain European countries, “we will have to find ways to manage this situation, including by opening dialogue”, believes the analyst.
But several observers call for caution, affirming that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham fundamentally remains a radical Islamist group, in a Syrian context that is as complex as it is changing.
“Opportunistic”
“The group has demonstrated that it is incredibly opportunistic in its alliances and allegiances,” underlines Tammy Palacios, in charge of counterterrorism at the New Lines Institute, convinced that it will remain a “jihadist organization as long as its leadership does not actually put end its connections with more radical groups and jihadists.”
His self-proclaimed transition “is not necessarily shared by all its members” and he “continues to gravitate around the interests and major objectives of Al-Qaeda”, she told AFP.
The jihadist risk in northern Syria remains immense in this regard. “HTS may be done with Al-Qaeda but Al-Qaeda is not done with HTS.”
Furthermore, the participation in the rebellion of “terrorist organizations raises concerns,” warns the Soufan Center.
A bit like the Taliban, de facto leaders of Afghanistan since the summer of 2021 but still not recognized as such by the international community, HTS therefore risks struggling to get off Western lists of terrorist organizations.
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A position that the German Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) think tank and former expert at the United Nations Security Council, considers justified.
“If you have to ask permission from the al-Qaeda leadership before cutting ties with it, the sincerity of the ideological reorientation is in question,” he notes.
He recalls that HTS also “glorified the Hamas attacks” against Israel on October 7, 2023 and that European jihadists sometimes mention it, like the Austrian killed in September while preparing to commit a “terrorist attack” against the Israeli consulate in Munich (Germany).
“There is no debate” on the fact that the group must remain on the lists of “terrorist organizations”, insists Mr. Schindler.
