the essential
Specialist in Syria, geographer Fabrice Balanche received the 2024 geopolitical book prize for “Lessons from the Syrian Crisis” (1). While Aleppo has just been taken by jihadists close to al-Qaeda, he deciphers the local and regional issues of this offensive.
You were recently in northeastern Syria and you maintain contacts throughout the country. What is the situation today?
The jihadist organization Hayat Tharir al-Sham (HTS) therefore seized Syria's second city. The Syrian army has abandoned Aleppo and is rapidly retreating while HTS is spreading into the Sunni zone with its al-Qaeda allies from whom it officially “amicably divorced” in 2016 by not renewing its allegiance. But it was only a tactical, facade divorce, approved at the time by Ayman al-Zahawiri, the leader of al-Qaeda, in order to benefit from Western and Arab support… which they did not ultimately didn't get it. In any case, this coalition today has a minimum of 50,000 men.
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Equipped by whom?
From the start of the civil war, these jihadists were equipped by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, France and the United States, the countries which supplied weapons to the rebel coalitions. Today, it is essentially Ankara which had to provide them with the means to launch the offensive because it is clear – given its scale and its coordination with the pro-Turkish rebels arriving from the East, from al-Bab , that Turkey is behind this action.
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What objective is Recep Tayyip Erdogan pursuing in this case?
For HTS leader Abu Mohamed al-Joulani, the long-term objective is to bring down the regime and take power in Syria. In the short term, it is to seize Aleppo to eliminate the threat posed by the presence of the Syrian army in relation to its stronghold of Idlib, 3000 km², where 3 million people are concentrated. For him, seizing Aleppo also means installing his men in the apartments of the Christians who left, of all the people who fled. But beyond that, it is indeed a piece in the great regional game: Israel destroys Hezbollah, Hezbollah forces therefore leave Aleppo to return to South Lebanon. At the same time, Iranian logistics are being decapitated by Israeli strikes in Syria. The Russians are occupied in Ukraine. All this weakens the defense of Aleppo and the Syrian system. The Turks then took advantage of this weakness by launching the HTS, since Ankara's goal is to build a buffer zone between Idlib and Iraq, eliminating the Kurds in the process, and ultimately, in my opinion, to create a northern republic. -Syria modeled on Northern Cyprus. In this plan, it obviously needs Aleppo, capital of North Syria.
In consultation with Benjamin Netanyahu?
I don't think so. But this suits Israel, because the more Syria is divided, the more it weakens and if it is destabilized, the Iranians will no longer be able to supply Hezbollah with missiles. The Shiite crescent will be cut or very damaged, which will not displease the petromonarchies and the West either.
What future for the Kurds and Eastern Christians in the face of this jihadist breakthrough?
The Eastern Christians, unfortunately, are finished, at least in Syria. They leave, they no longer have hope. I was in the Christian neighborhood of Qamechli last week. It was three-quarters empty and it's a ghost neighborhood today. If the HTS claims to protect them, it's just for the photo. As for the Kurds, they fought against Daesh, against the al-Nusra front, they have no illusions about the jihadist character and the desire to eradicate the HTS against them since it is an instrument of Turkey.
Are Bashar al-Assad and his Russian allies capable of counterattacking?
The regime is very fragile today. The war, the sanctions, the economy which is not recovering… he no longer has the popular support that he had among part of the population in 2011 and with $20 per month pay, his troops are in poverty, demoralized. The Alawites will fight to protect their villages and “useful Syria” on the coast. The Russians will protect their base in Tartous and Latakia. But to retake Aleppo… the Syrian army is in no condition, unless Iran sends Shiite militiamen ready to be killed. And facing them, they will have the jihadists of Idlib, motivated by a radical ideology, who have everything to gain. Refugees who cannot leave for Türkiye or elsewhere and who have only one solution, to take back their village, their neighborhood by force. In my opinion, we are therefore moving towards a lasting division of Syria.
