LThe National Rally (RN) is on the verge of power, after an election marked by a massive remobilization of voters. There has never been so much voting for legislative elections since 1997: 32.9 million citizens went to the polls, or 66.7% of registered voters, when for twenty years, less than one citizen in two took part in choosing their MP.
The first effect of the increase in participation was the election, in the first round, of 76 deputies, compared to only 5 in 2022 and 4 in 2017. Symbolic of the dynamics carried by a lightning campaign, these immediate victories show the strength of the hopes suddenly placed in the imminence of a political alternation by voters whose social projects are poles apart. They thus consecrate 38 RN deputies and 32 deputies of the New Popular Front (NFP), elected on June 30 in territories some of which regularly record abstention records. The massive mobilization was therefore also less marked than usual by the socio-demographic inequalities of electoral participation.
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To be significant of the restructuring of the political landscape currently taking place, the ability of the RN and the NFP to act as a stronghold must not, however, create any illusions about the outcome of the vote. In 307 constituencies, the high turnout benefited all three political camps, allowing each to maintain its candidate in the second round. Without withdrawals intended to block the way, these territories where the second round would have every chance of resembling the first in terms of balance of power would, in most cases, see the RN win. It would benefit on average from more than 4 points ahead of the left and even more over the Ensemble candidates. The voting method would therefore have the effect that in the Assembly the majority of left-wing and centre voters would now be represented by a far-right MP.
Drastic drop in triangulars
If, despite this, the outcome of the vote remains very uncertain to this day, it is on the one hand because the number of three-way races has drastically decreased due to withdrawals. It is on the other hand because the behavior of voters whose candidate was eliminated at the end of the first round or has withdrawn remains very hesitant. In all cases, however, it is the transfer of votes from the NFP to Ensemble and from Ensemble to the NFP that will, or will not, determine the swing of Parliament.
Questioned on the eve of June 30 by the Cluster 17 institute on what their behavior might be in the second round in the event that their candidate were no longer present, approximately 6 voters in 10 of the presidential majority considered abstaining, 3 voting in favor of the NFP and 1 in favor of the RN. Quite symmetrically, more than 5 NFP voters in 10 considered not choosing between an RN candidate and an Ensemble candidate in a second round without a candidate from their camp, compared to 4 who declared themselves willing to activate the logic of the Republican barrier. It is important to realize the number of voters concerned: the abstainers currently lacking in the Republican front represent nearly a quarter of the voters.
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