The fight against the far right is regularly presented as a priority by the President of the Republic and by the majority of other political parties. However, Marine Le Pen and the RN have never been so close to power. While the RN went from 18.7% of the vote in 2022 to 33.15% (including the votes of Éric Ciotti and his friends) in 2024 in the first round of the legislative elections, this growing popularity highlights the success of an unprecedented strategy. The latter, marked by absence and discretion, contrasts with the media omnipresence of political leaders in general, and of Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon in particular.
Since 2022, a discreet strategy
April 25, 2022: the second round of the presidential election has just delivered its verdict and Emmanuel Macron is re-elected against Marine Le Pen. The battle of the legislative elections begins… and Marine Le Pen announces that she is going on vacation. Her decision can only surprise before an electoral deadline of this importance and while some political leaders present the legislative elections as the 3rd round of the presidential election which could force Emmanuel Macron to cohabit if the presidential camp does not have a majority in the National Assembly. The opposition between the presidential camp led by Emmanuel Macron and a nascent Nupes led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon is therefore taking full advantage of the light. The opposition is quite frontal between on one side a re-elected president who perceives the danger represented by the grand coalition of the left and a rebellious leader who cherishes the hope of settling in Matignon.
Faced with electoral momentum that was much less promising for his movement than during the 2017 legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron positioned himself as a bulwark against the danger that a left-wing coalition dominated by the Insoumis would mean if it came to power. His speech between the two rounds in front of the presidential plane a few minutes before leaving to visit French soldiers in Romania, calling for a republican surge in the face of the threat from the extremes, perfectly illustrated this position. This strategy was reminiscent of Charles de Gaulle’s attitude when he denounced the chaos of May 68 and posed as a bulwark against the disorders of the time. The Gaullist movement then largely won the 1968 legislative elections after the dissolution decided by the head of state.
On the Nupes side, the domination of France Insoumise outlines a strategy marked by criticism of the re-elected president and by a personalization of the campaign around the figure of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, legitimized by his 21.95% obtained in the first round of the presidential election. Alongside this media omnipresence, the legislative campaign of Marine Le Pen – back from vacation – and the RN seems barely audible. However, it allows the far-right movement to elect, to everyone’s surprise, 89 deputies in the framework of a majority vote historically unfavorable to the RN before 2022.
The “tie strategy”
After his re-election in 2022, Emmanuel Macron declared that “this vote obliges him” and that he must therefore take into account the votes cast for his candidacy in order to only block Marine Le Pen and change his practice of power. The sequence, which goes from his re-election in June 2022 to the European elections of 2024, is nevertheless marked by the repeated use of 49.3 by his government to pass laws that are sometimes very controversial, such as the pension reform. His major televised press conference on January 16, 2024, in front of the government and an assembly of journalists who were only allowed to ask a few questions, also illustrates a persistent verticality in his practice of power in line with his first five-year term.
On the Nupes side, the parliamentary “guerrilla” strategy defended by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and led by the deputies of France Insoumise is creating controversy, particularly during the discussions on pension reform. It seems to be going down badly with public opinion and ends up causing the left-wing coalition to explode following the Hamas attacks on Israeli soil. Marine Le Pen, for her part, re-elected as a deputy, imposes the “tie strategy” on the 89 RN deputies in the Assembly. This involves being well-dressed, courteous and respectful. Apart from a few slip-ups such as the affair of Grégoire de Fournas’ racist remarks, the tactic is generally respected by the RN elected officials. Their attitude contrasts with the violent exchanges regularly opposing the rebellious deputies and the members of the government or certain deputies of the presidential majority.
Competitors too much in the spotlight?
In retrospect, Marine Le Pen and the RN’s strategy during the 2022 legislative elections may have seemed surprising and counterproductive. While she came in second in the presidential election, she seemed to leave the position of the main opponent to the government to Jean-Luc Mélenchon. However, the sequel seems to legitimize this strategy aimed at not making waves and keeping a low profile. It turns out, during the work of the National Assembly elected in 2022, to be consistent with her work of de-demonization put in place when she arrived at the head of the Frontist party. Above all, it distinguishes her from her two main rivals in the presidential election, who end up appearing more divisive than each other.
Beyond the question of whether the strategy of dramatizing the issues chosen by Emmanuel Macron and that of permanent combat and controversy adopted by Jean-Luc Mélenchon are useful to their camp, these two strategies seem to legitimize, by contrast, that of Marine Le Pen. And thus accompany a gradual rise of the RN, now at the gates of power.
A risky strategy to become president?
By leaving the field open to Jordan Bardella for a possible post of Prime Minister, Marine Le Pen seems to want to stick to this line that has been particularly successful for her over the last two years. But such a strategy also presents risks… especially if the RN comes to power following the current legislative elections. In the event of failure, Marine Le Pen could approach the next presidential elections at the head of a movement potentially made less popular by the practice of power.
Conversely, the possibility that Jordan Bardella will take advantage of his new role to gain popularity and therefore feel legitimate to run in the next presidential election, like Édouard Balladur following the cohabitation of 1993, cannot be ruled out. Not to mention that a new dissolution of the National Assembly before 2027 is a possibility already considered by the presidential camp (it will be necessary to wait at least a year to do so). In any case, it is a safe bet that Marine Le Pen will be forced to expose herself more and to put aside a strategy that has nevertheless been crowned with success, if she wants to one day become President of the Republic.
The original version of this article was published on The Conversation
