A trader works at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange
by Claude Chendjou
The main European stock markets are expected to be on a cautious note on Thursday, with the appetite for risky assets on the Old Continent being limited since the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States.
Donald Trump will also have a lot of room to implement protectionist measures, with the Republicans having a majority in the House of Representatives, in addition to the Senate, according to Edison Research projections.
According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 should fall further, by 0.07%, at the opening, after two consecutive sessions in the red. The Dax in Frankfurt could fall 0.19%, while the FTSE 100 in London is expected to drop 0.12%. The EuroStoxx 50 index is expected to increase by 0.04% and the Stoxx 600 to decrease by 0.06%.
Several experts believe that European markets will continue to lag behind the United States with the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Richelieu Gestion believes the gap between European and US assets is set to widen, while a Bank of America (BofA) survey shows investors have increased their exposure to US stocks, now anticipating higher growth as well. than higher inflation.
For today's session, new statistics should fuel the debate on the outlook for growth and inflation on both sides of the Atlantic as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States, published Wednesday, demonstrated a reacceleration of price dynamics in October, to 2.6% year-on-year.
Numerous company results, including those of Scor, Thales, Burberry, Merck, Siemens, Swiss Re and Walt Disney will also be scrutinized by investors while the quarterly publication season is in full swing.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended in mixed order on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones and the S&P-500 recording slight increases after unsurprising data on inflation in the United States.
The Dow Jones index gained 0.11%, or 47.21 points, to 43,958.19 points.
The broader S&P-500 gained 1.39 points, or 0.02%, to 5,985.38 points.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 50.66 points (-0.26%) to 19,230.74 points.
In values Spirit Airline lost 59% after press reports according to which the airline will file for bankruptcy.
IN ASIA
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index fell by 0.48% to 38,535.70 points. Technology stocks, in the wake of Wall Street, weighed even if the weakness of the yen limits the potential decline of the indices. SoftBank Group fell 3.22%.
The MSCI index bringing together stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) lost 0.63%.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite lost 1.72% and the CSI 300 fell by 1.73%. Beijing's latest measures to revive the ailing real estate sector have failed to boost investor morale. The CSI real estate index dropped 2.15%.
VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:
CHANGES
The US dollar hit its highest level in a year against its main rivals on Thursday and is heading for a fifth consecutive daily gain, fueled by rising yields and Donald Trump's victory.
The greenback gained 0.18% against a basket of six reference currencies and exceeded 156 yen for the first time since July.
The euro lost 0.16%, to 1.0546 dollars, to its lowest level since November 2023.
The pound sterling was trading down 0.17% at $1.2681, a three-month low.
RATE
The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds rose by 1.4 basis points, to 4.465%, after peaking at 4.483%, its highest level since July 1, due in particular to Donald Trump's plan which should fuel inflation and reduce the Fed's room for maneuver to lower its key rates.
The yield on the ten-year German Bund stood at 2.422% (+3.5 basis points) on Thursday, the day after a volatile session where it closed with a gain of 3.5 basis points.
OIL
The oil market fell on Thursday, erasing its gains from the day before, due to concerns about demand and a strengthening of the dollar.
Brent fell by 0.59% to $71.85 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) by 0.69% to $67.96.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA FOR NOVEMBER 14:
COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS
EZ 10:00 GDP (1st estimate) Q3 +0.4% +0.4%
– over one year +0.9% +0.9%
EZ 10h00 Production industrial sept. -1.4% +1.8%
– over one year -2.0% +0.1%
USA 1:30 p.m. Weekly registrations for the week at 9 223.000 221.000
unemployment Nov.
USA 1:30 p.m. Producer prices Oct. +0.2% +0.0%
– over one year +2.3% +1.8%
(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Blandine Hénault)
