For many people, Donald Trump’s victory as president of the United States despite fascist and authoritarian discourse1 is a sign that democracy is not doing very well in our neighbors to the South.
Published at 6:00 a.m.
However, the health problems of American democracy are not new.
Americans believe less and less in this political system.
In 2006, 94% of Americans believed that democracy was the best form of government. In 2019, this proportion had decreased to 71%. Three out of ten Americans therefore no longer really believe in it. In 1995, 75% of Americans rejected a system where an authoritarian leader did not have to deal with Congress or elections. In 2017, 62% of Americans rejected such a system2.
When nearly a third of citizens no longer believe in democracy, we better understand why Kamala Harris’s attacks to denounce Donald Trump’s autocratic tendencies did not allow her to win the election.
Many attribute the decline of democratic values in the United States to Donald Trump. However, this decline had started well before his conversion from reality TV star to politician.
Between 1995 and 2020, attachment to democracy declined significantly in only one of the G7 countries: the United States. In five other countries (Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, France, Canada), it was on the rise. In Italy, it was slightly down.2 Italy has also been led since 2022 by a far-right leader, Giorgia Meloni.
American democracy seems entangled in a vicious circle.
The less attached Americans are to their democracy, the more it deteriorates, the less satisfied Americans are with it, the more it deteriorates, and so on.
The situation is such that the United States is no longer, as it once was, a democratic model.
This observation becomes clear when we consult the Index of Democracies of The Economist.
Each year, the magazine ranks 167 countries according to the state of health of their democracy.3
In 2023, the United States – the most powerful nation in the world, home of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln – is not in the top 10 of the healthiest democracies. Neither in the top 20.
They rank at… 29e rank. Behind Estonia. They are just ahead of Botswana (33e rank), an African country where the GDP per capita is 11 times lower.
The Economist groups countries into four categories: complete democracies (top of the class; score of 8 to 10 out of 10), imperfect democracies (score of 6 to 8), hybrid regimes (score of 4 to 6) and authoritarian regimes (the dunces of the ranking; score from 0 to 4).
With a score of 7.85 out of 10, the United States is in the second group, that of imperfect democracies. The United States left the group of full democracies in 2016 – the year Donald Trump was first elected – and continues to slide down the rankings.
The first group, full democracies, includes 24 countries. Norway is the strongest democracy in the world. The countries of Northern Europe, New Zealand, Ireland, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Taiwan complete the top 10. Canada is part of this group, at 13e rank, like five of the seven G7 countries.
Within the G7, only the United States (7.85) and Italy (7.69) are considered imperfect democracies.
The Economist Don’t give your grades on a whim. Nor is it based on his assessment of the leaders in place. Rather, it evaluates countries according to five criteria that are as objective as possible:
- the electoral process (are there free, secure and fair elections?);
- the functioning of government (do citizens think it works well; is there corruption?);
- political participation (the rate of participation in elections);
- civil liberties;
- political and democratic culture (are citizens attached to democracy, do they judge that there is a good degree of social cohesion?).
The United States is very strong in terms of voter turnout (3e rank out of 167 countries, with a score of 8.89 out of 10) and for the electoral process (9.17). For civil liberties, they have a fair score (8.53).
But for the functioning of government (6.43) and especially for democratic and political culture (6.25), it is catastrophic.
Want to understand how poor American democratic culture is? The United States has the same score (6.25) as Haiti, a country in perpetual crisis which has struggled for several years to maintain a government.
According to this ranking, Uganda, Zambia, Tanzania and Hong Kong (all at 6.88) have a better democratic culture than the United States.
Phew!
To establish your grades, The Economist is based, among other things, on global polls that ask people whether they are committed to democracy, whether they think it would be better to have an authoritarian leader who would not respect the results of elections, whether a military regime or a government experts was preferable to elected officials, if a democratically elected government can maintain order and is good for the economy. This worrying rating of 6.25 is therefore in some way given to the United States by the Americans themselves.
Why do Americans believe less in democracy? This is a big question. In my opinion, the answers are probably multiple: polarization, economic inequality, globalization, social networks, the way Americans get their news.
The decline of democratic values did not start with Donald Trump, but he is part of the problem, not the solution.
For those who hope that American democracy will regain strength, his election is anything but reassuring.
1. Lisez le texte « Is It Fascism ? A Leading Historian Changes His Mind. »
2. Christopher Claassen et Pedro C. Malgalhaes, « Public Support for Democracy in the United States Has Declined Generationally », Public Opinion Quarterly2023, vol. 87, no 3, 719-732
3. Consult the Index of Democracies The Economist (in English; registration required)
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