Three fundamental choices
Exit the old right-left divide. Three blocs are now emerging in the current chaos, even if their construction itself is chaotic against a backdrop of betrayals, hypocritical rallies and hastily cobbled together programs: a national bloc led by the RN, a left-wing bloc dominated by its radical wing and the Macronian central bloc, threatened with disappearance. As if the dissolution accelerated the recomposition of the political landscape.
Legislative elections in France: discover the results of the latest polls
The national bloc has the wind at its back. Gathering around 40% of voters in the European election of June 9, this populist, conservative and identity-based camp now appeals to much more than the working classes. Many voters voted for the list of the young and dashing Jordan Bardella in the European elections even though they had never slipped a Marine Le Pen ballot into the ballot box, finding her too changeable or too linked to the brown ideas of her father .
The president of the Republicans Éric Ciotti (suddenly targeted by a third investigation for embezzlement of public funds in Nice) was excluded from the party for having joined the RN, just as Marion Maréchal was ousted from Reconquête! by Éric Zemmour after reaching out to the RN. On the program side, the RN has promised to repeal the pension reform at 64 this fall, but also to reduce VAT on energy and “stop the barrel of Danaids that immigration represents today” in the event of victory in the legislative elections.
New Electric Front
As for the left bloc, it brings together the social democrats, the communists, the ecologists and the rebels within a “New Popular Front” very similar to the Nupes buried last December. Here again, the atmosphere is electric. After a quickly concluded agreement in principle, the time has come for purges and the bursting of rivalries into broad daylight. Friday evening, certain rebellious deputies from the start (Raquel Garrido, Alexis Corbière, Danielle Simonnet, etc.) received an email informing them that they were not reinvested. “It’s obvious that this is Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s desire.” Alexis Corbière immediately reacted.
Anticipated legislative elections in France: the far right ever closer to power
In fact, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose name is circulating as a possible host of Matignon in the event of a victory for the left, carried out major maneuvers all weekend. To the great dismay of Raphaël Glucksmann, head of the PS-Place Publique list, who had his victory confiscated by the leadership of the far-left party even though he obtained 4 points more than LFI in the European election. Just as surprising, the “New Popular Front” did not hesitate to invest a far-left activist registered with Avignon. And François Hollande did not hesitate to join the coalition of the left. He is a candidate in Corrèze on the grounds that “the situation is serious”. On the program side, the union of the left promises to index salaries to inflation, to increase the minimum wage to 1,600 euros net, to repeal the unemployment insurance reform, to introduce a return to retirement at 60 years and reestablish a wealth tax.
“A major risk of lasting dropout”
There remains the Macronian bloc, whose members oscillate between resentment and dismay after the surprise decision of the President of the Republic to dissolve the Assembly and therefore potentially sacrifice them all. Gabriel Attal, disagreeing with this decision, will lead the campaign, Emmanuel Macron having agreed to be more discreet than initially planned. “I’ve been planning this for weeks, and I’m thrilled. I threw my unpinned grenade at their legs” he confided to a relative according to comments reported by Le Monde.
And there remains France. Afep, which brings together the 117 largest French companies, warned on June 17 against a “major risk”, “that of the lasting decline of the French economy”. The Cac 40 stock index in Paris suffered its worst week since 2002 after the surprise call of legislative elections, erasing all its gains this year after reaching record levels just a month earlier.
