The “Nostradamus” of the American elections, who was almost always right since 1984, had bet on Harris: he explains the reasons for his error

The “Nostradamus” of the American elections, who was almost always right since 1984, had bet on Harris: he explains the reasons for his error
The “Nostradamus” of the American elections, who was almost always right since 1984, had bet on Harris: he explains the reasons for his error

In his system of “13 victory criteria”, he had nevertheless attributed 9 to Kamala Harris. But why didn’t the Democrat win? “Could I be wrong? Of course!”commented Allan Litchman, recognizing the flaws in his system. “The fundamental problem lies with the criteria, not my interpretation.”

Trump’s success in key states with his victory in Arizona

As Le Parisien relays, the historian details several elements which disrupted the proper functioning of his process. First of all, he points the finger at the behavior of Democrats, who were not strategic in discrediting Joe Biden and their own government. “I’ve never seen this before, and I’ve studied American politics since the founding of our country”he specifies.

For Allan Litchman, the fact that Kamala Harris did not participate in the Democratic primaries also played a role. She took advantage of her status as vice-president but did not benefit from support from the entire party.

The historian was also “surprised” by “the explosion of phenomena that existed before, but not in such a pronounced way.” One parameter in particular whose strength he had not measured: disinformation. And at this level, one man left his mark: Elon Musk. “He was the director of this disinformation. There were two billion views of his posts which spread disinformation. Not just on the economy, but also on immigration, minorities… We have never seen that on this scale”he says.

Finally, Allan Litchman regrets and denounces one last thing: the misogynistic, racist and xenophobic comments which marked the campaign.

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