An agreement « very bad » et « not acceptable as is ». Since 2019, Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly repeated his opposition to the free trade treaty between the European Union and the South American common market of Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia). He claimed to have « blocked » last February in full anger among farmers – anger being rekindled because of the suspension of government promises and negotiations with Mercosur. In reality, this was not the case.
Negotiations on this treaty which plans to remove 90 % of customs duties between the two zones have never stopped. Although decried by civil society, farmers and the majority of the political class in France as deadly for the climate, human rights, biodiversity, and the presumed interests of national farmers, the agreement is supported by the president of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen. The text could thus be signed by the end of the year or perhaps earlier, during the G20 in Rio de Janeiro on November 18 and 19.
Above all, the refusal of the President of the Republic would only be a facade speech: « Emmanuel Macron's position consists of saying no to Paris but doing nothing in Brussels within the European institutions »says Maxime Combes, economist co-host of the Stop Mercosur collective and in charge of trade and relocation policies at the International Association of Technicians, Experts and Researchers. However, the head of state had several levers of action to put his words into practice.
1- Modify the mandate of the European Commission
Maxime Combes recalls that « the European Commission has the right to negotiate the free trade agreement with Mercosur on behalf of the member states ». Since 1999, it has had a negotiating mandate that the 27 have entrusted to it. This does not include any objective of combating climate change, protecting forests or biodiversity.
Or, « Emmanuel Macron has never demanded either to modify the content of this mandate, nor to withdraw it from himexplains the economist. This is why the Commission refuses to reopen negotiations on the content of the agreement. » What the Stop Mercosur collective is asking is that France modify the content of this mandate. « This would make it possible to have a major debate on European economic policy. »
2 – Reopen the negotiation on the content of the agreement
In 2020, the head of state assured that he would only support the agreement if it did not cause « increase in deforestation »if the Mercosur countries respected « their commitments under the Paris Agreement » and if « imported agri-food products complied with the health and environmental standards of theUE ». But Emmanuel Macron did nothing to modify the text or bury it, notes Maxime Combes: « The various ministers responsible for foreign trade, Franck Riester then Olivier Becht, declared that the results of 20 years of negotiations should not be thrown into the trash. In 2023, Olivier Becht said he wanted to give himself time to finalize the agreement, specifying that it obviously had to be concluded. »
In reality, the deal has been finalized since 2019. Why has so much time passed ? Car « the election of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil froze everything and since Lula was re-elected as head of the country in 2022, the situation has changed »summarizes Maxime Combes. The European Commission and industrial lobbies saw in Lula's return a « window of opportunity » to finalize the agreement.
Since the content of the agreement has been the same since 2019, why were there new negotiating sessions in September and October ? « To appease critics, the European Commission and its Mercosur counterparts have started work on an annex to the agreement, a sort of attached document, replies Maximes Combes. The problem is that no one knows what it contains, the European Commission has refused to make it public. » This Monday, November 11, the European executive will finally report on the state of the negotiations to the monitoring group of the International Trade Committee of the European Parliament.
3 – Organize a blocking minority
Can France oppose the agreement ? Yes, once the negotiations are finalized when the text is presented to the European Parliament, it will require the unanimity of the Member States, each having a right of veto. « Except that the European Commission could circumvent the opposition of several member states thanks to “splitting” »alert Maxime Combes. This maneuver consists of decoupling the commercial aspect of the agreement with Mercosur from the rest of the subjects (migration, research, education, cybercrime, etc.). « In this case, no more veto, the commercial part would be adopted by qualified majority »or 55 % of Member States representing at least 65 % of the population of theUE.
In order to counter this majority, the Stop Mercosur collective calls for building a blocking minority. To achieve it, at least four Council member states are needed, representing more than 35 % of the population of the European Union. While several member states such as Austria, the Netherlands, Poland are opposed or reluctant to the agreement, « Emmanuel Macron did not go to see them to organizedeplores Maxime Combes. Although it may have been weakened politically since the failure of its dissolution, France remains the second largest European economy and can bring together other states. »
To oppose the agreement, a final option would be to refer the legality of the agreement to the Court of Justice of the European Union. splittingadds the economist: « If the Commission has already used it for other free trade agreements, today we can no longer do without the vote of national Parliaments, this would reinforce ambient Euroscepticism. »
The election of Donald Trump may also encourage Europeans to stand together. That's to say « come together politically, protect farmers and industries, not conversely get closer to Brazilian agribusiness by letting the markets take control ». While there are only a few days left, Monday November 4, 200 deputies, from an arc going from ecologists to LRpublished a column where they called on the executive to block the conclusion of this agreement. Furthermore, on Wednesday November 13, around ten organizations and unions such as Friends of the Earth, Attac or Greenpeace will gather in front of the Ministry of the Economy in Paris, at the call of the Confédération paysanne and the Stop collective. Mercosur.
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