These 7 states which will make the American presidential election

Unlike the states won over to the cause of the Democratic vice-president, such as California or New York, or to that of the former Republican president, such as Kentucky or Oklahoma, these seven territories do not clearly lean towards one party or for the other. The Americans call them “swing states”, “key” or “pivot” states in French.

Clearly the most coveted state, the arbiter of the election. Donald Trump won by a narrow margin in 2016 and Joe Biden came close in 2020. Blue-collar workers from this northeastern state, which has experienced great industrial decline, left the Democratic ship to join Donald Trump . But Kamala Harris intends to win back part of it thanks to the major infrastructure projects launched by Joe Biden, job creators, and the support of unions. The big cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are leaning towards the vice-president, while the former president is banking on the rural population.

Another Democratic stronghold marked by deindustrialization which switched to Donald Trump in 2016, to everyone’s surprise. Joe Biden won it back in 2020. The behavior of the many Muslim voters or those from Arab countries in this state, revolted for a year by American support for Israel in its war in Gaza, will be crucial for Kamala Harris.

In this cradle of the automobile industry, the Democratic candidate, however, received the support of the sector’s major union, the UAW. Donald Trump is banking on the cost of living to bring together the middle class, portraying his opponent as co-responsible for a Democratic mandate marked by inflation.

Here again, a state lost by the Democrats in 2016 and regained in 2020. The Republicans, whose party was born in this state, organized their major convention there in July. The Democrats hope to attract moderate Republicans repelled by Donald Trump’s outrageous rhetoric, by pointing out the “existential threat to democracy” that he would represent.

In the wake of major anti-racist movements, this conservative state with a large African-American population (around 30% of the electorate) preferred Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. Kamala Harris, who could become the first black woman to access the White House, hopes to attract young people and minorities in Atlanta. But she seems to have difficulty capturing the vote of black men. The religious electorate, quite substantial in this state, praises Donald Trump as the architect of the cancellation of the federal guarantee of abortion.

The only one of the seven “swing states” of 2024 to have voted Republican in 2020. The state has not voted Democratic since 2008 but has elected a Democratic governor since 2017. After the devastating passage of Hurricane Helene, which left at least 101 dead in North Carolina, Donald Trump spread false accusations about the government’s response to the disaster. But the impact on the local electorate is difficult to determine. A bit like in Georgia, Kamala Harris is banking on African-Americans and young people.

Rather Republican land, this southwestern state created a surprise in 2020 by choosing Biden down to the wire, with 10,457 votes in advance. But the theme of illegal immigration, hammered out by the Republican candidate in increasingly harsh terms, can hit home in this state bordering Mexico, despite the large number of Latin Americans. There is, however, hope for Kamala Harris: in 2022, the state rejected a Trumpist candidate for governor, electing a Democrat.

The least populated of the “swing states”, known for the casinos of Las Vegas, has not voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. But conservatives believe they can swing it, relying in particular on the Latino population. American, which is increasingly breaking away from the Democratic fold, especially men.

Supporters of Kamala Harris hope that the arrival of neo-residents, younger and more educated employees often coming from neighboring California to work in tech or the energy transition, can work in their favor.

Everything you need to know about the American presidential election