Published on May 9, 2024 at 9:13 p.m.
Good news for the summer in Quebec. Forecast.
New forecast
According to the latest forecasts from NOAA, the lag in the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña could stretch somewhat. Experts estimate that the neutral phase could last a little longer during the height of summer. In fact, the June-July-August quarter could take place with surface water temperatures close to normal.
The water cools
Remember that the El Niño phenomenon reigned for several months in the equatorial Pacific. At present, surface water temperatures are approaching normal, which means the end of the reign. The neutral phase is imminent. However, NOAA forecasters expect La Niña, the cold anomaly, to return by the end of summer.
What does this mean for the coming summer in Quebec? Obviously, the water temperature in the Pacific is not the only phenomenon likely to influence the summer weather in La Belle Province. Similar situations in recent years have, however, shown that when the neutral phase is maintained during the summer, the season turns out to be satisfactory.
La Niña in autumn
Next fall is expected to take place under the reign of La Niña. Remember that between the months of August and October, tropical activity enters its most intense period. This could then generate a context favorable to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Indeed, the warm water in this basin, the low wind shear and the instability could favor the birth of storms.
With the collaboration of Patrick Duplessis, meteorologist.
