Demographic transformations have continued at a breakneck pace for two decades, with massive decline in global fertility. This phenomenon, now represented in innovative cartography, offers a new vision of global geographic trends. This analysis demonstrates that the transition to low fertility levels now concerns the entire planet, including the regions which seemed the most resistant to this change thirty years ago.
A global demographic context
United Nations estimates show that improving life expectancy and demographic inertia will further lead to an increase in the world’s population over the coming decades. However, the decline in fertility is expected to slow this growth. L’total fertility indicator (ICF) fell from 5.1 in 1965 to 2.3 in 2021, with an acceleration of the decline after 2015.
The original cartography of settlement areas
Most demographic maps use national data, which has the disadvantage of erase intra-state variations. Thus, a map based on circles proportional to the populations of areas, rather than countries, presents a more nuanced panorama. The areas represented have populations of 30 to 40 million inhabitants, which provides a similar global breakdown to countries while avoiding focusing on areas that are too small for which data is not readily available.
Current trends: A demographic revolution
Two-thirds of the world’s population below the replacement threshold
Current data shows that TFR greater than 3 children per woman are now only found in certain regions, mainly in Africa, the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The levels ofICF greater than 5 only exist in areas of the Sahel, Central Africa and the Horn of Africa.
In contrast, in 152 of the 235 zones represented, 63% of the world’s population experiences fertility below the generation renewal threshold (2.1 children per woman). This trend is found in many Asian and European areas, as well as on the American continent, India and Indonesia.
A radical change in two decades
Comparing maps from 2000 and 2021 reveals the extent of the change. In 2000, a large area encompassed Africa, the Middle East, the northern half of India, and the Philippines. Twenty years later, the geography of fertility has completely changed. India shows glaring contrasts between the southern and western regions, where the TFR is below 2.1, and the densely populated Ganges Valley states, where it remains between 2.3 and 3.0.
In America, TFR between 2.1 and 3 was common in 2000, except in metropolitan areas of southern Brazil and Canada. Today, these areas have also joined the group of low fertility regions.
A global typology in 8 categories
Areas of very low fertility
THE areas with very low fertility (less than 1.7 children) make up 41% of the world population. The majority of them (81 so-called type 1 zones) have experienced a decline over the last two decades, while 16 type 2 zones have slightly increased their fertility. Type 1 zones cover both developed countries (Europe, Japan, east and west coasts of the United States) and developing countries which have seen their fertility drop drastically (South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Iran, Brazil ).
Type 2 areas, mainly in Germanic Europe, Spain, northern Italy, central Europe, Ukraine and Russia, have very low fertility, but increasing slightly. This positive trend could be linked to immigration or economic stabilization.
Areas of low and medium fertility
THE areas with low fertility (TFR between 1.7 and 2.1) represent 22.6% of the world population. They include areas of developed countries that have recently dropped their fertility below the replacement threshold (France, interior of the United States, Australia) and developing regions that follow similar models (Iran, Turkey, China, India).
THE areas of average fertility (ICF between 2.1 and 3.5) make up 20.5% of the population. Type 4 zones show a transition slowed down by religious or cultural inertia (Morocco, Egypt, Levant). Type 5 zones show rapid convergence towards national models (Andes, Guatemala, Bangladesh). Type 6 represents areas where the decline in fertility was interrupted after 2000 (Maghreb, Central Asia).
Areas of high fertility
THE areas of high fertility (more than 3.5 children per woman) now represent only 16.1% of the world population. These areas are experiencing remarkable declines, greater than 1 child per woman in 20 years. The drivers of the start of the decline are theincrease in the age of marriageimproving the schooling of girls and increased use of contraception.
A demographic revolution in progress
The maps clearly show that convergence towards a low fertility model is underway around the world. Nearly two thirds of the world’s population experience fertility levels below the generation replacement threshold. The decline in southern regions has been so rapid that it exceeds historical trends observed in the North.
This global evolution reflects the profound social transformations underway: urbanization, increased schooling, access to contraceptive methods and transformation of family structures. While the challenges remain numerous, the decline in fertility is a clear indicator of major societal changes, with long-term consequences on the world population and its geographic distribution.
Source : https://doi.org/10.3917/popsoc.618.0001
