After several weeks of uncertainty, Israel launched a military assault this Monday on Rafah, a border town located in the south of the Gaza Strip where nearly 1.2 million Palestinians have taken refuge after fleeing the bombings. Tuesday morning, the IDF announced that it had seized the Rafah crossing point, the only border post between the Palestinian territory and Egypt, and had killed at least twenty Hamas members.
The capture of the Rafah crossing point is highly strategic for the Israeli army. “It has been one of Hamas’ main arms trafficking points for two decades.”, estimates Frédéric Encel, doctor in geopolitics and specialist in the Middle East. This takeover comes after the closure on Sunday of Kerem Shalom, an essential transit point for humanitarian aid to Gaza, following rocket fire which killed four Israeli soldiers.
“Washington will be satisfied with flat protests”
In a statement released on Tuesday, Hamas responded to Israel by accusing the country of carrying out “the region in disaster” and to continue “his policy of famine and persecution of the Palestinians”. Accusations which echo the concerns of international humanitarian organizations present on site. In particular the United Nations (UN), which warned on Tuesday that it only had one day’s fuel reserve for all operations in Gaza, and that it had been prohibited from access to the Rafah crossing point.
“A serious violation of international law and the rights of Palestinians”: in Rafah, Israel orders the evacuation of around 100,000 civilians
The prospect of witnessing a disaster scenario in the days to come is further reinforced by the forced flight of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from the border town towards expanded humanitarian zones designated by Israel and located in particular near Al-Mawasi, dotted with humanitarian tents, this rectangle, one kilometer wide and 14 kilometers long, is supposed to provide sufficient aid to refugees, according to the Israeli army. A statement that humanitarian organizations doubt, but which could nevertheless allow Benjamin Netanyahu to satisfy the American ally.
However, Washington has not clarified whether it considers the ongoing action a large-scale operation – something Israel strongly denies. A use of rhetoric that allows Netanyahu “to avoid too strict a condemnation of the United States” according to Didier Billion, deputy director of IRIS and Middle East specialist. However, he believes that “whatever the importance of this operation, which in my opinion is large-scale, Washington will be content with flat protests and leave it at that.” For Frédéric Encel, “Israel has just acquired several tens of thousands of tents and has surely succeeded in convincing the American government that it was thereby limiting the number of civilian casualties.”. Remaining largely silent this Tuesday, Joe Biden’s government continues to maintain ambiguity over its possible support for Israel’s military advances.
Israeli-Palestinian conflict – UN agency for Palestinian refugees refuses to leave Rafah
Favorable balance of power
The military operation carried out by Israel in Rafah comes after Hamas announced that it had accepted on Monday a ceasefire proposal proposed by the mediating countries. Little information is circulating on the content of the proposal, but “he Apparently Hamas agreed to release 33 hostages in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners”, specifies Mr. Encel. However, the changes made by the movement were deemed unacceptable by Israel, which announced the sending of a delegation to mediation in Egypt. “Given the current balance of power, it is unimaginable for Israel to accept a definitive end to the fighting.”, estimates Frédéric Encel, “especially since the Israeli army needs new dissuasive credibility” since October 7 and the Iranian attack on April 14.
For Didier Billion, the proposal was “de facto refused by Israel, as evidenced by its operation on Rafah, which is an arm of honor for any possibility of understanding between the two parties”. An Israeli refusal which would also be motivated by its extremism. The country won’t stop until “the military destruction of Hamas and its ballistic capacity”, adds Mr. Encel. A goal to which “the Israeli army will arrive” according to the researcher, who sees in the door left ajar by Hamas a sign of the movement’s weakening.
Hamas weakened, but “not eradicated”
”It is true that this turnaround reflects a weakening of Hamas”, notes Didier Billion. “However, it is impossible for Israel to eradicate this organization, which has roots within the Palestinian population itself. Hamas is certainly weakened, but it is not eradicated, it has not disappeared, it will reconstitute itself and rebuild itself.”
According to him, the validation of a counter-offer by the Palestinian movement could also result from a political maneuver aimed at accentuating criticism of Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies. Thus, Hamas politicians “want to present themselves as those who have taken a step forward towards a negotiated political solution”. By rejecting the proposed agreement and continuing his crusade on Rafah, the prime minister would appear hostile to any attempt at peace. He could thus put himself in a position “very uncomfortable” with regard to the international community, but also to the Israelis who call for prioritizing the release of the hostages. This Tuesday, a Hamas leader warned that the planned talks in Egypt represented “ the last chance [pour Israël] to recover the captives […] living”.
