Russian strikes continue against Ukrainian cities and energy centers. Again on Monday, a missile attack on Odessa, a large Black Sea port vital for Ukrainian exports, left at least four dead and 32 injured. According to preliminary data, this is the strike of a ballistic missile with submunitions – a weapon that releases numerous small explosive charges. The attack hit one of the areas “ most popular in Odessa“, “ where people walk with their children, their dogs, play sports… “, denounced regional governor Oleg Kiper.
During the night from Friday to Saturday, 34 Russian missiles had already been fired at Ukraine, of which “only” 21 had been intercepted by the Ukrainian defense. “ Interception rate dropped to 61%notes @Escortert, who provides daily situation updates on the war. The anti-aircraft protection dome was weakened: it intercepted 80% instead.. »
Several factors explain this loss of capabilities which was rather the pride of Ukraine at the start of the war, with the neutralization of missiles presented as “invincible” by Vladimir Putin. First, there is the ammunition crisis, which affects artillery on the ground as much as in the air. Despite the vote for American aid last week, the fire ratio is still completely to the advantage of the Russians: when Ukraine fires a missile, it receives 9. It is better, it was double mid-March, but it remains very unbalanced.
If Ukraine is less successful in shooting down Russian missiles, it is also because it has lost several anti-aircraft equipment in recent weeks, seriously weakening an already very tense system between the cities and the front. Several Ukrainian MiG-29s, capable of destroying enemy missiles, were also damaged.
“The active change of trajectories”
But Russia has also gained strength in another area: the programming of its missiles. The Telegram Monitor War account regularly publishes maps with the trajectories taken by these Russian missiles. These may seem totally haphazard but in reality it involves dodging anti-aircraft batteries to sneak deep into Ukraine or bypassing defenses to strike in the back.
Concerning the strikes overnight from Friday to Saturday, War Monitor reports that “ the characteristic features of this attack are the active change of missile trajectories and the calculation for the simultaneous approach of missiles of different types and speeds to the immediate object of attack “. On his map, these trajectories, whose color determines the type of missiles, are very visible.
War Monitor regularly reproduces this type of map. There is this Kh-101 cruise missile, fired by a Russian bomber on March 22, 2024 from Russian skies, which enters Ukraine from the Kharkiv side, goes up towards kyiv before coming back down and hitting a target in the west of the country. There are also these Iranian Shahed drones which fly over Crimea before heading towards Odessa then zigzagging along the Moldovan border and crashing, again, in the west of the country.
This programming can also serve as a diversion. On Saturday, numerous missiles were fired towards kyiv before dispersing towards other targets. A tactic which forces the Ukrainian army to concentrate significant air defense assets around the capital to the detriment of other strategic targets, such as arms factories, gas stocks or railway lines which will allow the American aid to enter the country.
