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Australian Open Best Bet: Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego – Open 6ème

INTERVIEW: Lorenzo Sonego on his “fearless” attitude, and his tattoo ⬆️

When it comes to raw power and athletic ability, few players can surpass Shelton. He punishes the ball from the baseline and has an excellent set of wheels for his size.

Beyond that, the tennis we see should also favor the American. Shelton is one of the best servers on tour, with a monster 90.0% wait percentage on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. His serve should only be better against Sonego, whose break percentage of 13.5% in 2024 was absurdly low. His inability to consistently put putbacks into play played a huge role in Sonego’s 22-30 record last year. His stats from last year make it hard to believe in his strong start to 2025.

I also think Shelton did some valuable preparation work in the offseason. His return game definitely needs a little more seasoning, but his backhand looks a little better and he’s making better decisions in key moments. The latter should serve him very well in a match like this, which could feature some close sets – and maybe even a few tiebreakers. Shelton will have to be smart about pressure points, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be right now.

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There simply isn’t much that Sonego does better than Shelton, so it’s hard to imagine him doing too much damage against the American on his favorite surface.

Pick: Shelton -1.5 sets (-141)

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