The latest nuclear development plan published four months ago in the United States provides for the tripling of production capacities by 2050 in the country. Will it be maintained as it is by Donald Trump? And what consequences could his return to power have on uranium production and imports?
Republicans and Democrats have managed to find common ground in recent years on the main areas of relaunching production. The return of Donald Trump could, however, make it a little easier to lift moratoriums on exploitation in certain States, via a drop in environmental standards, suggests the latest rapport published by the Observatory for the Security of Energy Flows and Materials (Osfme) and coordinated by the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris).
The new president is also expected to increase customs duties from 10% to 20% on imports of radioactive ore. Chinese uranium has already been taxed at 25% since last year, but the volume imported is not significant, explains Teva Meyer, associate researcher at Iris, and co-author of the report, and the measure is without consequence to UNITED STATES.
Significant dormant production capacities
The country is the largest consumer of uranium, but still dependent on the outside for its supply, its main suppliers being Canada (27%), Australia (22%) and Kazakhstan (22%).
American reactors alone absorb a quarter of the world’s needs – or around 18,000 tonnes. And the sector will be even more greedy in the years to come, since nuclear capacities are expected to triple by 2050, according to the nuclear development plan published in September 2024 by the US Department of Energy.
National production, which represents only a few percent of today’s needs, is largely insufficient. Producing more is essential for the United States, particularly for the defense sector, because imported uranium is packaged for civilian use.
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Imported uranium still costs less
Hence the revival of the sector, notable for two years. In the first half of 2024, the country produced as much as in all of 2022, according to data compiled by the Osfme study. Nearly twenty extraction sites using ISL technique already have their license and are waiting to have more visibility on long-term needs, to justify investments.
Relaunching production also means the country can depend less on Russian uranium. In 2023, 12% of America’s natural uranium supply came from Russia’s Rosatom. Officially, these imports are not prohibited, unlike those of enriched uranium.
Perhaps because imported natural uranium, whether from Russia, Uzbekistan or Canada, always costs less than that produced in the United States.
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