François Bayrou triumphs: he managed to obtain non-censorship from the PS, this time, and, if we are to believe the declarations of his Minister of the Economy, for the vote on the upcoming budget. Get ? Buying would be fairer. And the French will gradually discover that the policy of the centrist negotiating with the PS has a cost. And a hell of a cost.
The resurrection of the PS: a bitter cost for public finances: 2, 3, 4 or 15 billion?
The negotiations had been intense. The general policy speech quite vague. Bayrou therefore had to write a long letter to the leaders of the PS in the form of a Prévert-style catalog listing all the savings, initially planned by Barnier, which he renounced: the Prime Minister undertakes to give the last word to Parliament on pensions, he abandoned the elimination of 4,000 teaching positions and the addition of two waiting days for public employees, he recorded a significant increase in health spending (+1 billion), etc. Encrypted by Le Figaro, “Bayrou’s concessions to the PS wipe out more than 2 billion euros in savings”. But the figure would in fact be much higher because we must add the cost of the slippage that the pension reform will induce, the savings that Barnier had already wiped out and the cost of censorship, with the automatic revaluation of all retirement pensions, or 3.6 billion euros (Le Figaro). We are approaching ten billion euros! And even 15, if we follow the calculations of the economist Christian Saint-Etienne interviewed by Le Figaro : “Compared to the Barnier trajectory which was planned for the year 2025, non-censorship corresponds to a deterioration of 15 billion euros”. This is what the PS cost France, first by censoring then by monetizing its non-censorship… A Macronist deputy quoted by The World admitted, on the evening of this fool’s game: “An agreement with the socialists always costs a little money”. An understatement worth billions…
And is the political cost for LR?
But it is the political cost of the operation which is perhaps heavier and, at this stage, even more incalculable. Who benefits from this social-centrist agreement which, by the way, goes back to the founding DNA of Macronism? Well, as Mr. de La Palice would say, to the socialists and the centrists. The PS, moribund, weighed down by its alliance with Mélenchon, is back in the saddle! Thank you Mr Bayrou! To tell the truth, we should not be surprised by the person who called for a vote for Royal then Hollande. Bayrou managed to reconstitute a Macronist majority by anchoring PS and LR to it. Of course, this is a snub for LR, who, through Wauquiez’s speech, presented himself as the guarantor of budgetary seriousness. Le Figaro echoes the annoyance of LR deputies and understands that “François Bayrou’s concessions to the left place LR ministers in an uncomfortable position”. In fact, Bayrou cornered LR, prisoner of its image as a government party keen not to censor.
-PS-LR: A large untenable gap?
Bayrou preferred to turn towards the PS rather than the right, towards public spending rather than rigor for the State, towards ease rather than courage, all while claiming to free himself from the RN. It’s clever. But this is a short-sighted calculation because it is difficult to see a Bruno Retailleau and a Laurent Wauquiez continuing to swallow socialist snakes, on economic and financial subjects as sovereigns. Patrick Hetzel, former Minister of Higher Education, interviewed by Le Figarodoes not say anything else: “The mandate that the Prime Minister has assigned to himself is to try to maintain the mooring of the LR by opening up towards the PS. But at some point, it will be a big gap… We can always try to play on this tension but going further to the left would, ipso facto, lead to things becoming tense on the right and increasing the degree of discomfort of our ministers ». The next political crisis of Emmanuel Macron’s twilight mandate?
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